Our theme for last week’s picks was to fade the preseason bandwagons.
It worked with aplomb as Ohio State, Mississippi Stat and LSU all covered with relative ease against some of this summer’s trendiest teams.
The theme for our picks for Week 2 is to try and buy back off any market overreaction from last weekend, starting with Alabama.
There’s no excusing what we saw from the Crimson Tide at Florida State in Week 1.
It wasn’t just Kalen DeBoer’s game plan that seemed doomed from the start, but the effort level in Tallahassee was appalling.
Florida State wanted it more, and the Seminoles were rewarded.
My hope is that DeBoer and Alabama snap back into focus and use Saturday’s matchup with Louisiana-Monroe as a chance to get right and springboard themselves into the rest of the season.
It does feel ominous to bet the Tide against the Warhawks, who famously upset Alabama back in 2007, but I’ll bank on ‘Bama to keep its foot on the pedal for all 60 minutes in this one.
Anything short of that, and things could get ugly real quick for DeBoer in T-Town.
The Pick: ALABAMA -38.5 (+131, DraftKings) vs. UL-Monroe
I thought Tulane would be on upset alert at home against Northwestern in Week 1, but the Green Wave dominated en route to a 23-3 victory.
The win over a Big Ten opponent was another feather in the cap for Tulane, which has become one of the model programs in the Group of 5.
It was also an emotional weekend for Tulane, as it commemorated the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
Furthermore, the team felt disrespected by Northwestern after the Wildcats denied Tulane’s request to wear a uniform inspired by the occasion.
They were fired up.
Handicapping motivation is tricky, but there’s certainly a chance that Tulane looks past this matchup with the Jaguars with a showdown with Duke, and their former quarterback, Darian Mensah, on deck.
This is quite the spot for LSU.
Not only is it a traditional letdown situation after an emotional, potentially season-defining win at Clemson, but the Bayou Bengals also have to keep an eye on their SEC opener against Florida in Week 3.
That could lead to a less-than-stellar performance against Louisiana Tech, who would love nothing more than to put a scare into their Pelican State rivals.
With Clemson in the rear-view and Florida coming up, don’t be surprised if we see LSU race out to a big lead and then pull their starters once the game is wrapped up.
Even if the starters hang around, you’d have to imagine that Brian Kelly will want to keep the ball on the ground and keep the clock moving, hoping to keep his charges as fresh as possible for their date with the Gators.
The back door should be open for the Bulldogs in Baton Rouge.
Last week: 3-0
2025 record: 3-0
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.