As we approach Week 0, I’m working on filling out my college football predictions futures portfolio, and I dug deep into SEC win totals this week.
Here are my short-and-sweet thoughts on every SEC team’s win total for the upcoming season.
Georgia boasts a loaded roster and has a cookie-cutter schedule.
There’s only one game with a projected spread under two touchdowns (at Auburn in Week 5).
Unfortunately, projections don’t show value on the win total, and it’s hard to imagine Georgia sweeping their SEC schedule for the third straight season.
The play: Pass
The Crimson Tide entered the post-Bryce Young era by making two underwhelming coordinator hires, bringing in OC Tommy Rees from Notre Dame and DC Kevin Steele from Miami.
Nick Saban tends to re-load every season with elite recruiting, and he’s trying to do the same this season.
The Tide will have 27 four- and five-star recruits on the roster, per 247Sports.
Young talent is important, but so is veteran leadership, and the Tide have almost zero experience on the roster, ranking ninth-to-last nationally in SP+ returning production and seventh-to-last in Phil Steele’s Experience metric.
The offensive line is inexperienced, and the quarterback room is filled with three “meh” guys (Taylor Buchner, Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson).
I’m betting the coordinator hires and lack of experience combine in Saban’s first two-loss season since 2019.
The play: Under 10.5 Wins (-150 at Caesars)
Head coach Brian Kelly returns 15 starters for his second year in Death Valley, ranking 10th in SP+ returning offensive production.
The offense is loaded with quarterback talent (I’m high on starting quarterback Jayden Daniels), offensive line talent (four offensive line starters), and running back depth (five experienced backs).
The defense likely improves, especially if linebacker Harold Perkins becomes a Nagurski candidate in his Sophomore season.
The Tigers will be favored in 11 games and draw Missouri and Florida from the East.
The play: Over 9.5 Wins (-110 at BetMGM)
Tennessee must replace a ton of production on offense, including their offensive coordinator, quarterback and six starters.
I’m unconvinced that Joe Milton can re-create Hendon Hooker’s quarterback production. Milton just isn’t accurate enough.
The defense returns more, but the Vols couldn’t stop anyone last year.
The play: Under 9.5 wins (-188 at FanDuel)
Ole Miss returns the 13th-most offensive production in FBS, per SP+.
The Action Network’s Transfer and Returning Production (TARP) metrics, which account for transfer portal activity, are even higher.
It’s hard to say who will start at quarterback, but I’m happy with either returning starter Jaxson Dart or Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sancers.
Watch out for running back Quinshon Judkins.
The Rebels will move the ball behind an offensive line that returns four starters and 131 career starts.
The play: Over 7.5 wins (+105 at BetMGM)
Head coach Sam Pittman is 21-13-2 against the spread (ATS) as head coach of the Razorbacks, the most profitable coach in FBS during his tenure.
But this roster is awkward and lacks continuity outside of returning quarterback KJ Jefferson.
Projecting Arkansas is tough, and the models show no value on either side.
The play: Pass
Will Jimbo Fisher hand over play-calling duties to Bobby Petrino?
Nobody is sure.
Petrino needs to if the Aggies are to take any step forward on offense. Last year was a disaster.
With question marks on the coaching staff and no actionable model edge, there’s no play here.
The play: Pass
The Gamecocks played spoiler last season, picking up upset wins over ranked Kentucky, Tennessee and Clemson.
Sadly, regression is coming. They were -80 net yards per game in SEC play last season and will face a much-harder strength of schedule this season.
The Gamecocks also return only 10 starters.
The play: Under 6.5 wins (-135 at DraftKings)
I love Kentucky this season.
Head coach Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad White give their defense such a high ceiling, so I expect them to re-create defensive production despite losing six starters.
The offense should be much improved.
Bringing back Liam Coen as offensive coordinator will get Kentucky back to its roots (inside zone from 11 and 12 personnel).
The offense returns 10 starters. Most importantly, the Wildcats return four starters and 125 career starts on the offensive line, so their run-heavy offense should thrive.
New quarterback Devin Leary (NC State transfer) is arguably an upgrade over Will Levis. Leary is much more mobile and can work from outside the pocket.
Kentucky projects as a favorite in nine games this year.
The play: Over 6.5 wins (-140 at BetMGM)
Missouri has the ninth-most SP+ returning production in the nation, including 15 returning starters.
Quarterback Brady Cook returns four his fourth season in Columbia, and they added wide receiver depth in the portal (Theo Wease from Oklahoma).
The sky is the limit if new offensive line coach Brandon Jones can improve the offensive line play.
The line returns 136 career starts and nine guys with FBS experience, so you’d figure they improve upon their lackluster marks from last year.
The play: Over 6.5 wins (+115 at FanDuel)
It’s too hard to project the Bulldogs in the wake of Mike Leach.
The model projections align with the market.
The play: Pass
The Tigers rank second nationally in The Action Network’s TARP ratings, combining 17 returning starters with 247Sports’ fifth-ranked transfer portal class.
They bring in head coach Hugh Freeze, who should be an upgrade from Bryan Harsin.
I project some positive turnover regression after they were -11 in net turnovers last season.
I’ve got lots of love for Auburn.
The play: Over 6.5 wins (-125 at Caesars)
Going from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback will be tough for Gator fans to swallow.
They also have only three true SEC home games, as they play Georgia in Jacksonville and draw a road game with LSU in cross-conference play.
They’ll also play at Utah in the non-con.
The play: Under 5.5 wins (+125 at Caesars)
Vanderbilt should start 2-0 with non-con wins over Hawaii and Alabama A&M.
After that, it’s anybody’s guess.
Can Vanderbilt win an extra game?
Their best shot will be at UNLV in Week 3, where they’re projected as a two-point dog.
The play: Pass