The Ohio State Buckeyes lost The Game for the second straight season last year, yet caught a break (USC losing to Utah) and backed into the College Football Playoff.

If a last-second field goal wasn’t pulled wide left, we’re probably looking at Ohio State in a much-different light this pre-season. Possibly, as defending National Champions. 

Instead, I’m low on Ohio State’s prospects in the upcoming season.

And I plan to make some cash off my speculations by taking a position on their win total. 

Let’s start here: The Ohio State defense should improve in Jim Knowles’ second season as the defensive coordinator. 

Seven starters are back, and players get more comfortable in Knowles’ 4-2-5 system with more time.

There could be three or four First-Team All-Big Ten defenders, headlined by defensive ends JT Tuimolauo and Tommy Eichenberg. 

Outside of that, I have several concerns about the 2023 Buckeyes. 

Starting with the obvious, Quarterback CJ Stroud and offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson are gone.

They’ll be replaced by Kyle McCord and Brian Hartline, respectively.

Ohio State knows how to develop quarterbacks, and Hartline is being promoted from within the Ryan Day program.

Both could be great, especially because they have one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country (led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka). 

But it’s also brand new. It’s fair to ask if there will be some growing pains (at the minimum). 

A revamped offensive line won’t make the job easier.

The Buckeyes lost three starters to the draft, both tackles and the center. That’s a lot of talent to replace. 

They brought in tackle Josh Simmons from San Diego State and center Victor Cutler from Louisiana-Monroe.

They’re loaded at guard (Donovan Jackson, Matthew Jones). 

But, overall, this unit will regress.

Between the losses on the offensive line, Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State has the 97th “most” returning offensive production in the nation, per SP+. 

The Buckeyes also lose their kicker, Noah Ruggles. 

So, there aren’t a lot of experienced offensive players returning to Columbus. 

Unfortunately for them, this schedule isn’t easy. 

The Buckeyes draw road games with Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan. 

Do you know who returns a ton of production from last season? Michigan does. 

Do you know who returns a ton of production, brings in a ton of talent from the portal and has a new stud head coach? Wisconsin does. 

And if I were Ryan Day, I would tread lightly in my Week 8 matchup with Penn State. The Nittany Lions are primed for a breakout season. 

Ohio State’s win total is set at 10.5 across the market. 

The Buckeyes had a two-loss season in 2021 when they dropped games to Oregon and Michigan.

Given the turnover on the offensive side of the football and a tough schedule, I’m expecting another two-loss season this year.

So, I’m betting Ohio State falls short of the 11-win mark in 2023, and I recommend you do too. 

The play: Under 10.5 wins (+104, FanDuel Sportsbook)