I recently wrote a column about Drew Allar’s Heisman hopes for this website. 

The article got a lot of attention from the college football betting community, both positive and negative. 

But some readers may have missed the point about Allar. 

I’m buying Allar because I’m buying Penn State. 

These Nittany Lions are ready to elevate to the next level, and I’m betting on them to make the College Football Playoff and win the national championship. 

All the ingredients are here for a breakout season. 

Let’s break down those ingredients, starting with the defense. 

This defense could be the best in the nation. 

The Lions have the best secondary in college football.

They were a top-10 pass defense last year (by EPA per play and Success Rate allowed), forcing the most incompletions of any defense in the sport.

Sure, they lose two starters in Joey Porter Jr. and Ji’Ayir Brown.

But they have cornerbacks Kalen King and Johnny Dixon ready to step into elite roles. 

King finished fifth among all qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades last year, leading the nation in passes defended against Power Five competition. 

The defensive line and linebacking core are top-five units nationally. 

The line is anchored by Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson, who combined for 9.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss last season.

Three of the seven scholarship defensive tackles on the roster are north of 275 pounds. 

Meanwhile, the offense returns a lot of production. 

About 80% of last season’s rushing and receiving yards return.

Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen headline one of the best running back corps in the nation, and Dante Cephus transfers in from Kent State to boost the wide receiver corps. 

The offensive line was 17th in Havoc allowed last year, and it brings back three starters and 66 career starts.

Sure-fire first-round pick Olu Fashanu returns to anchor the line, and he’s likely the nation’s best tackle. 

Yes, quarterback Drew Allar is an unknown.

But he introduces a level of variance and upside that I look for when taking long-shot futures bets. 

Allar is the highest-rated quarterback recruit in Penn State history.

He’s the prototypical modern-day NFL quarterback with the arm talent to compete at the highest levels of football.

He combines that with accuracy – he accounted for zero Turnover Worthy Plays in 71 dropbacks with Penn State last year and threw only seven interceptions in 514 high school attempts. 

If Allar capitalizes on his potential – he has the support staff to capitalize on his potential – the sky is the limit for Penn State football. 

There’s continuity in the coaching staff, as Penn State returns head coach James Franklin and both coordinators.

Players on both sides of the football figure to improve, with defensive coordinator Manny Diaz entering his second season and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich returning for his third. 

Yurcich’s return is important.

He maximized production from Sean Clifford over the past two seasons, and he had a whole year to mentor Allar as a backup. If anyone can get the most from Allar, it’s Yurcich and his fully implemented system. 

So, this roster is loaded. 

The schedule breaks well, too. The Lions figure to be favorites in 10 games, only projected as underdogs against Ohio State and Michigan.

Ohio State is in a transitioning year, as it lost All-World quarterback CJ Stroud and three offensive linemen to the draft. The Buckeyes rank 97th in SP+ returning production, so I see them taking a step back.

Penn State will catch Ohio State on the road, but the Lions can compete in that game.

Meanwhile, Penn State draws Michigan at home this season. That’s a monster swing game in the Big Ten East, and the Lions will have the home crowd on their side.

Altogether, I’m dying to bet on Penn State’s potential. 

What’s the best way to do that? 

If Allar hits my expectations, the Nittany Lions will be considered among the nation’s elite teams.

Suppose the Lions split their tilts with Ohio State and Michigan while running roughshod over the rest of the schedule.

In that case, they’ll be in a similar spot that Ohio State was last year – a dominant one-loss Big Ten team that came up short in the East division but backed into the College Football Playoff. 

That is a highly realistic scenario for Penn State. And we can grab the Nittany Lions to make the Playoff at +450 on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Once the Lions are in the playoff, anything can happen between their defense, offense and Allar. 

So, we can also grab the Lions to win the National Championship at 40/1 on BetRivers Sportsbook. 

These are my favorite preseason futures bets of the college football season.

Penn State has the perfect combination of high-variance outcomes and upside for a surprise National Championship run, and the market is undervaluing its breakout potential. 

The plays: