Alabama is not a juggernaut. The Crimson Tide should’ve lost to Auburn and they only beat Arkansas by three and Texas A&M by six.
They’ve improved mightily as the season has progressed, especially quarterback Jalen Milroe. But they’re also an easy offense to prepare for.
In the Rose Bowl on Monday, one step away from its first appearance in the College Football Playoff championship game, Michigan needs to avoid explosive plays and contain scrambles.
The Wolverines don’t allow chunk plays, ranking third in passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards. And they’re generally good against mobile quarterbacks. Michigan ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed on scrambles and designed quarterback runs.
The key will be getting pressure on Milroe and forcing him to throw intermediate routes, as he struggles mightily with both.
Michigan ranks fourth in total pressures, and Alabama’s offensive line is shaky. And considering the talent in the Wolverines’ secondary, Milroe should target those intermediate routes.
I expect Michigan to force Milroe into a few key mistakes, which should be the difference.
The Alabama defense is talented, but Michigan’s offensive line should get a push, and with a healthy Donovon Edwards-Blake Corum duo, the Wolverines should be able to move the ball in a tight win.
The pick: Michigan -1.5.
Texas runs mainly quarters coverage, but Michael Penix Jr. and his elite wideouts shred quarters. The Huskies also burn opponents with hitches, outs and screens. Texas’ metrics are shaky against all three sets.
The Longhorns must pressure Penix, but I don’t think they can. These two met in last year’s Alamo Bowl, and Texas managed only five pressures on 55 dropbacks.
Meanwhile, Washington’s defense is underrated. The unit slumped mid-season due to injuries, specifically in the secondary, but their safeties are now healthy, and they swarmed Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. The Ducks went 3-for-10 on third down.
It’s also worth mentioning that top wideout Xavier Worthy was on crutches following the conference title game. The Huskies’ aerial attack could struggle if he’s not 100 percent.
Washington’s rush defense isn’t great, but the Longhorns’ offensive line is subpar at run blocking. Texas ranks just 56th in EPA per Rush, so the ’Horns can’t exploit the Huskies’ biggest weakness.
Following the Pac-12 Championship loss, Bo Nix gave an impassioned speech.
“It was always my goal to be a college football quarterback. I worked for it every day. I’m going to enjoy the moments I have left with my teammates.”
To Nix, that means one final ride in the Fiesta Bowl.
With Nix and Bucky Irving playing, it’s hard to imagine Liberty generating stops. The Flames rank 70th in EPA per Play allowed. Their main issue is allowing chunk plays, ranking 95th in Explosiveness allowed.
All the Ducks do is generate explosives.
Monday is Nix’s final day living his dream. He has the playmakers and matchup to cook. I also don’t expect him to exit this game until the final whistle, even if Oregon is up 30.
Last week: 2-1. James Madison (L), Northwestern (W), Coastal Carolina (W)
2023 season: 20-25