Action Network’s Tanner McGrath makes picks for two games on this Saturday’s college football slate:
This is the perfect buy-low, sell-high spot.
After a tough loss to Miami of Ohio, let’s buy low on Cincinnati, which lost despite outgaining the Redhawks 538 to 358.
Meanwhile, let’s sell high on Oklahoma, whose market value has been inflated by blowouts over lowly Arkansas State and Tulsa.
The Sooners also pulled out a miracle cover against SMU in Week 2, winning by 17 as 16.5-point favorites despite being outgained 367 to 365 and trailing 14-11 in the fourth quarter.
Scott Satterfield’s offense looks great, ranking 18th in EPA per Play. Emory Jones is the perfect quarterback for Cincinnati’s system.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has problems on the offensive line, which the Bearcats’ defense can exploit (top-10 in Havoc).
I’m looking for Cincinnati’s rush-heavy offense to control the game script as heavy underdogs, staying within the number for 60 minutes.
Utah State matches up poorly with James Madison.
The Dukes boast a stifling run defense and a solid rushing attack behind an experienced offensive line.
The way to beat James Madison’s defense is over the top, as it’s prone to allowing explosive plays.
And the way to beat James Madison’s offense is by forcing new quarterback Jared McCloud into uncomfortable passing downs.
Utah State has no personnel to create explosive plays, given the Aggies’ only skill-position weapon is slot receiver Terrell Vaughn.
The Aggies boast a top-10 offense by EPA per Rush, but those numbers are inflated after a 380-yard performance against FCS Idaho State.
I expect heavy regression, especially against James Madison’s elite front seven.
Utah State’s defensive line is inexperienced and filled with JUCO transfers, ranking 98th in defensive line yards.
These Aggies stuffed Air Force on only 2% of rush plays last week, an extremely concerning number even against a triple-option attack.
James Madison should dominate in the trenches, run the ball, stifle the run, control the time of possession and win convincingly.
I’m also low on Utah State, which lost nearly its entire 2022 roster in the offseason.
I’ll fade this bare cupboard until the wheels fall off.
Last week: 3-0. Iowa (W), Florida (W), Washington (W).
2023 season: 6-3.