If you had told me last Aug. 1 that Manchester City would be a -390 favorite over Chelsea in their penultimate match of the 2022-23 English Premier League season, I would have been floored.

City was odds-on to win the trophy before the season, but Chelsea was viewed as a potential contender, and things looked to be trending in the right direction for the Blues after a busy transfer window.

But though things rarely go as planned in any season in any sport, Chelsea’s pedestrian 2022-23 performance has been startling.

That said, Chelsea is still a talented, dangerous team with a defense that can — at the very least — hang with Manchester City.

(11 a.m. Eastern)

That may seem crazy since City are riding a 23-match unbeaten streak (19 wins) across all competitions and have not allowed more than one goal in a game since a 4-2 win over Tottenham on Jan. 19 — a span of 26 contests — but at some point City will crack.

No team — even the best club in the world — can sustain this level of play. This is the high-water mark in the market for Manchester City.

The other intriguing part of this bet is that this match takes place a day after Arsenal’s 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest, which clinched the title for Manchester City for the third consecutive season.

That means Pep Guardiola likely will rest key players.

It’s not a bet you should expect to win, but Chelsea’s talent will always make it appealing at this kind of price.

The play: Chelsea +950.