Boston leads Philadelphia by three games with only four games left in the NBA regular season, so we have a Celtics vs. Sixers prediction for Philly’s final hope at the Eastern Conference’s second seed. 

The Celtics are dealing with injuries to Rob Williams and Jaylen Brown.

Williams is out, but Brown is still questionable, per The Action Network. 

However, the Celtics have owned this matchup recently, having won four straight against the Sixers. 

Considering these conflicting factors, I’m skipping making a wager on the side.

Instead, I’m looking right at the total. 

(8 p.m. ET)

The 2023 road Celtics are a defense-first team.

Their offensive rating drops significantly on the road, so they compensate by slowing the pace and playing aggressive on-ball defense. 

When the C’s want to lock in defensively, they can. Every player on the roster is a plus defender. 

The defense is spearheaded by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, but Malcolm Brogdon, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Al Horford are all lengthy, rangy defenders. 

Put both together, and the Celtics are a consistent under team away from Boston. The C’s are 23-16-1 to the under on the road this season. 

The Celtics also have a solid matchup against the Sixers. 

Joel Embiid has always struggled against Horford, and his scoring average is down six points against Boston (27 points per game in two matchups) compared to his season average (33 points per game). 

Additionally, Boston does a great job running opponents off the 3-point line, and the Celtics have kept the Sixers’ shooters off balance in head-to-head matchups this year.

The Sixers are the NBA’s best 3-point shooting team at 38.7%, but they’ve shot just 34.8% from downtown against the C’s this year. 

Using their defense, the Celtics won both matchups with the Sixers this season, and both games went under the listed total. 

I’m less confident the Celtics will win tonight with the injury to Brown, but I’m pretty confident the C’s defense can grind the Sixers down, resulting in a lower-scoring battle. 

Additionally, the under has seen reverse line movement in the market, a historically profitable bet signal. 

I expect another low-scoring battle between Boston and Philadelphia on Tuesday, so I’ll play the under 227.5 (-105) available at BetMGM Sportsbook. 

Under 227.5 total points (-105, BetMGM)