The NBA conference finals are lacking drama, as both series appear headed for a sweep and a finals clash between the Celtics and Mavericks.
Indiana goes into Game 4 on Monday night attempting to save their season as a 7.5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers at DraftKings, among others, are clearly expecting a sweep.
Ahead of Game 1, we noted that the Celtics do not turn the ball over nor do they get their shots blocked.
Wise bettors have smashed that trend into oblivion.
Those prop projections have all plummeted thanks to a 100 percent win rate on Myles Turner’s blocks, steals, and blocks + steals prop in each of the first three games.
Bettors who have followed the trend are more than 10 units of profit on three games, but oddsmakers, as always, are adjusting.
Turner’s prop projection is down to 1.5 steals + blocks ahead of Game 4, and there likely will be no Tyrese Haliburton going forward.
(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Many have joked about Andrew Nembhard’s sudden emergence as he’s thrown up shots and connected on many, especially during a 32-point outburst in Game 3.
He kept the Pacers on top for most of that game before the Celtics furiously rallied to win.
If Nembhard can’t keep up that hot shooting, the Pacers are live to get smoked Monday at home.
And that’s where we could see some mop-up duty from guys like Peyton Pritchard, Sam Hauser and Xavier Tillman Sr.
Based on the oddsmaker’s opinion of this game, it should seem likely that the Celtics are able to sit their starters for large portions of Monday’s contest.
Hauser played 22 minutes in the Game 2 blowout (1-for-5 from 3-point range).
Target Hauser in Game 4; he’s taking a ton of shots and his poor shooting has been nothing short of shocking, considering the Pacers own the worst defense in the NBA playoffs.
Hauser is 1-for-11 in this series, taking multiple 3-pointers in each game he has played.
His projection is 3.5 points, according to FanDuel and BetMGM, but given the expected game script and freedom he’s being given to fire away whenever he has the ball, he’s a good bet.
Hauser’s overs are all worth targeting.
Here’s my plan of attack for Game 4.
PICKS: Hauser over 3.5 points scored (-113, BetMGM) | 2+ 3-pointers made (+175, FanDuel) | 10+ points scored (+500, Bet365)