Easily the most confounding series in this year’s NBA postseason has been the Eastern Conference semifinal clash between the Celtics and 76ers, who are tied at 2-2 heading into Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5.

James Harden has been the surprise star for the Sixers, who stole Games 1 and 4 in dramatic fashion behind 40-plus point performances from the former MVP.

Yet oddsmakers expect Boston star Jayson Tatum to lead all scorers in Game 5, even after his shooting struggles to this point in the series.

Here’s how we’re betting on the player props market for Tuesday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

(via BetMGM)

After a scintillating 2022 playoff run in which he announced himself as a true superstar, Tatum hasn’t quite had the same juice in this year’s postseason.

The Celtics’ leading scorer in the regular season (30.1 PPG) has seen his scoring pace drop by more than four points in the playoffs (26 PPG).

He scored just 24 points in Game 4, when he missed his first eight shots before heating up across the second half and overtime.

It still wasn’t enough to lead his team to victory, and it marked his third consecutive game below this scoring prop total.

And while he played just 19 minutes in his shocking 7-point output in Game 2, there’s some slight risk of a similar outcome on Tuesday, too, in a contest that oddsmakers are pricing as a potential blowout.

I’d expect the Celtics to run much more of their offense through Jaylen Brown in Game 5 – 99% of bets are on the over for his points total (24.5) – as he’s been virtually non-existent down the stretch in this series.

That alone is a worthwhile reason to fade Tatum’s scoring prop here, but his own struggles from the field make it that much easier.

Before this series began, virtually no one expected Harden to drop 45 points in a playoff game at this point in his career.

And once he did, it was almost a given that he couldn’t do it again.

Yet here we are, two days removed from his 42-point epic in Game 4, and the betting market remains entirely dismissive of Harden’s ability to reach even half of that total in a critical Game 5.

Are we so sure that the former MVP can’t muster some scoring magic once again?

Yes, Harden’s shot ran cold in Games 2 and 3, but he was also more aggressive as a long-range shooter in Games 1 and 4 – which should clearly be his approach once again on Tuesday.

That’s especially true if Joel Embiid (34 points) can continue drawing attention inside, like he did to set up Harden’s game-winning shot on Sunday.

Even if conventional wisdom says to fade Harden here, this number is just too low to ignore, especially in a road environment that begs for him and Embiid to do the heavy lifting.

I’ll gladly bet over on this low total and sprinkle a little on Harden to lead all scorers (+800), as well.