Carlos Alcaraz has been knocked down a couple of times at Wimbledon, but nobody has been able to knock him out.
The Spaniard dropped the first set against Andrey Rublev in the Round of 16, but he came back to win 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, to advance to the quarterfinals. Alcaraz has won 18 matches on the spin at the All England Club.
He’s a massive -2800 favorite to make it 19 against Cam Norrie on Tuesday morning.
Alcaraz was the betting favorite coming into Wimbledon, and he remains at the top of the odds despite a couple of wobbles through the first four rounds.
The two-time defending champion was taken the distance by Fabio Fognini in his opening match, and dropped sets to Jan-Lennard Struff and Rublev.
His only whitewash came against World No. 733 Oliver Tarvet in the second round.
Norrie has also been involved in some serious battles at Wimbledon, but that’s to be expected given his style of play.
The Brit doesn’t really have an elite part of his game to depend on in order to pick up cheap points, but he’s quick and can play at a high level all day. His gas tank is his best weapon.
Against one-note players, Norrie can afford to be patient and wait for them to provide an opening, but Alcaraz is so multi-faceted that it becomes difficult to see how Norries outlast-over-outplay strategy pays off on Tuesday.
Alcaraz has had his blips in this tournament, but this matchup should suit him. He should be able to generate plenty of terrific break opportunities against Norrie’s pedestrian serve, while maintaining his edge when he starts with the ball.
Perhaps Norrie rides the crowd support and nicks a set, but even then, there could be a path to the Under 32.5 games because Alcaraz has every chance of dominating a couple of sets to the tune of 6-2 or 6-1.
The Play: Under 32.5 games (bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.