Andrey Rublev may be rounding into form.
The World No. 11 has endured a turbulent year, lacking the consistency that made him one of the ‘best of the rest’ behind Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic.
Rublev has won six of his last seven matches, with the lone defeat coming to Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals of the Canadian Masters.
The Russian has not faced the toughest path to get to the same stage of the Cincinnati Masters, but he did navigate a tricky match with World No. 19 Alexei Popyrin in the Round of 32.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | -400 |
| Andrey Rublev | +300 |
Things will get much trickier for Rublev on Friday when he takes on World No. 2 Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
The Spaniard has won 27 of his last 28 matches, with his lone defeat coming against Sinner in the Wimbledon Final.
This is Alcaraz’s first tournament since that contest, but he’s shown very little in the form of rust. He did drop a set against veteran Damir Dzumhur in his first match, but that’s not unexpected after such a long layoff.
Rublev, meanwhile, has been quite busy during the North American hard-court swing, playing Los Cabos, Washington, and Canada before heading to Cincinnati.
That’s not out of character for the ever-busy Rublev, but you have to wonder how his legs will hold up against a fresh Alcaraz.
In the last meeting between these two, which came in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, we successfully backed Rublev to win the first set. That approach could pay off again in this tussle, as the longer this contest goes, the more the scales will tip in Alcaraz’s favor.
The Play: Andrey Rublev to win the first set (+220, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.