For the first time in over a decade, boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez will return to his home country of Mexico – this time to defend his undisputed super middleweight title.

And oddsmakers aren’t expecting much of a fight from his overmatched foe.

Alvarez enters his first fight of 2023 as a massive favorite (-1600) over English challenger John Ryder (+800) at BetMGM, and he’s dealing at -300 to deliver the 40th knockout punch of his career.

A surprise knockout from Ryder would pay out at 14/1, while an outright tie is priced at a distant 25/1.

(via BetMGM)

Over/under 8.5 rounds

Will the fight go the full 12 rounds?

“Down but Not Out”

When will the fight be won?

On paper, this one shouldn’t be close: Alvarez has lost just twice in 62 career bouts, with a whopping 39 of his 58 victories ending via knockout.

Yet one of those two losses came almost exactly a year ago, when Dmitrii Bivol scored a unanimous decision against Alvarez.

He followed that up with an uninspiring win over Gennadiy Golovkin in which the Mexican star look mostly disinterested and worn out by the end – even if he ultimately picked up the victory over his archrival.

Alvarez fought both opponents with a torn cartilage in his wrist that later required surgery, which was supposed to sideline him through September.

Instead, he’s back in the ring just a few months later, this time against a boxer with a more aggressive style than his last challenger.

Ryder isn’t built to take down Alvarez outright, but he’s been knocked out just once in 37 fights, and Alvarez often takes his time to size up his opponent before delivering a finishing blow.

We can’t foresee an outright upset for the undisputed champion in front of his home crowd, but don’t be surprised if this one lasts to the later rounds or even goes the distance.

Over 8.5 rounds (-125)