The American League MVP has been in Aaron Judge’s name for two of the last three seasons, but he may have finally met his match.
Cal Raleigh’s 2025 campaign is growing more unprecedented by the day, as the Mariners catcher pulled ahead of Judge as the -220 AL MVP favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook following a two-home run effort on Wednesday.
Judge is now priced at +180.
Raleigh, who hit home runs No. 59 and 60 in the Mariners’ 9-2 drubbing of the Rockies, became the seventh player in MLB history to hit that plateau.
He is the first catcher in history to reach this mark.
It’s the first time that someone other than Judge has been priced with the market’s shortest odds since he opened as the +310 favorite.
Raleigh’s galvanic performance at the plate has dragged the Mariners to an AL West division title — their first since their record 116-win season in 2001.
While slashing .248/.361/.598, Raleigh owns 125 RBI (No. 2 overall) and reflects a WAR of 7.2 (No. 5 overall).
On a coincidental note, Judge was the most recent entrant to the 60 club when he broke Roger Maris’ record for 62 long balls in 2022.
He won his first MVP that year, and slashed .311/.425/.686.
But the Yankees captain hasn’t dwindled whatsoever. In fact, he’s considerably better. Slashing .328/.455/.681 and cranking 51 home runs of his own, he is on pace for the batting title and leads MLB with 9.3 WAR.
With the Yankees also punched in for the playoffs, both clubs have four games remaining. Raleigh will get one more turkey shoot against the forlorn Rockies before hosting the Dodgers.
Judge, meanwhile, has a soft landing against the White Sox and Orioles to close out.
The plan for either player’s status in those games remains to be seen.
If this market shift says anything to me, it’s two things: a) the BBWAA voters value home runs above all else, and b) you’ve got to hit a historic amount of them — and be a catcher — to even have a shot at usurping Judge these days.
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.