Caitlin Clark has taken March by storm. 

More and more people are tuning in to watch the senior guard score 32 points and dish out nine assists per night. She’s throttled her NCAA Tournament competition and finds herself in another Final Four. 

She and the Hawkeyes are 2.5-point favorites to advance past UConn and to the national championship – and I’m laying the points with Clark and Co. 

However, I also believe everyone is jumping the gun to bet on Clark’s player props at inflated prices, given that sportsbooks jack up Clark’s props because nobody wants to bet her Unders. 

Although I think the Hawkeyes will win, it’s wise to consider fading Clark in some of these markets. 

All odds available via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yes, Clark is averaging 32 points per game this season. 

She also eclipsed 33 points in 14 of her 37 games, just 37% of the time. 

She eclipsed 33 points in nine of her 18 Big Ten conference games, a more respectable 50%. 

During this four-game NCAA Tournament run, Clark scored more than 33 points only once, dropping 41 against LSU on a tournament-high 29 shots after playing all 40 minutes. 

I would say it’s more likely that Clark will fail to reach the 33.5-point milestone. 

Especially considering UConn’s defensive profile. 

By ShotQualityBets’ metrics, the Huskies are the nation’s fourth-best defensive team. 

Their 82.3 Defensive Rating ranks in the 98th percentile of D-I women’s teams. They rank in the top-50 nationally in Open 3 Rate allowed, top 10 in Rim-and-3 rate allowed, and top 25 in free-throw rate allowed. 

Diving deeper – Clark loves to push the pace and score in transition. Meanwhile, she primarily scores coming around off-ball screens and in isolation in the half court. 

But UConn is a solid transition denial defense (10 transition points per game allowed, 66th nationally) and great against secondary screening actions (3.1 off-ball screen points per game allowed, 24th nationally). 

Clark obliterated LSU, but the Tigers rank 28th by ShotQualityBets’ defensive metrics and closer to the national average in Open 3 Rate allowed, so it was easier for Clark to chuck up 20 triples and can nine. 

Additionally, UConn plays about seven possessions per game slower (69) than LSU does (76), so Clark might have fewer opportunities to amass monster counting stats. 

The team and players are different, but Clark’s played UConn twice in her career and failed to reach 25 points in either match. 

Clark scored 21 points on 7-for-21 (33%) shooting in her freshman NCAA Tournament game against UConn and 25 on 9-for-24 (38%) shooting during a regular-season game last year. The Hawkeyes lost both games. 

Clark’s points prop is juiced, and I’m willing to fade her in the Final Four against an elite defense that can contain most of her actions. 

Pick: Caitlin Clark Under 33.5 Points (-105)

Like her points prop, I think this line is a little inflated. 

Clark seldom hits six 3s in a game. She’s hit that mark in 16 of her 37 games this year (43%), and she’s done so in only one of her four tournament games. 

While I quite like taking Under 33.5 points, I can’t say the same for her Under 5.5 made 3s. 

The problem is that UConn’s defensive structure allows a lot of 3s. While most come guarded and off the dribble, the Huskies still allow more than 22 3s (22nd percentile) and 35 jumpers (100th percentile) per game. 

While I’m uncertain how many will fall, Clark should chuck up plenty of deep 3-point off-the-dribble jumpers. 

She could reach six 3s based on high volume alone, so I’ll pass on this number. 

Pick: Pass

Clark’s dished out double-digit assists far more than she’s recorded 35-point games this year. 

In Big Ten conference play, Clark dished out 10 or more assists in 13 of her 18 games.

She’s already recorded 40 assists during this NCAA Tournament run, which includes a meager three-assist performance against West Virginia. 

And if Clark can’t score as efficiently here, she might have to lean into creation for her teammates. 

UConn allows around 12 assists per game, but the Huskies also allow a 56% assist rate, below the national average. 

So, I’ll bank on Clark not scoring as much but instead dishing out assists to her teammates. 

Pick: Over 10.5 assists (+100)

Printable NCAA women’s bracket: Complete 2024 March Madness field

This number is about fair. Clark averages around seven rebounds per game and generally finishes games with between six and eight boards.  

UConn is a good rebounding team but not great, so there’s no edge in this market. 

Pick: Pass