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The Oklahoma Sooners are a very live dog in this year’s rendition of the Red River Rivalry. However, if they’re going to stay in this game, they’ll need to lean on the arm of quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Texas will likely shut down the Sooners’ rushing attack, as the Longhorns rank 15th in Line Yards compared to Oklahoma’s mark of 100th.
When Oklahoma fails to get a push-up front in the ground game, we should see Gabriel’s attempts go up, and it will lead to more passes in the red zone.
Gabriel will have the opportunity to have success through the air, as the Longhorns’ secondary may be a tad overrated. Yes, Texas ranks 21st in Passing Success Rate, but it’s 63rd in PFF’s coverage rating.
On top of that game script and the matchup, Gabriel has proven this total is far too low for him during his time at Oklahoma. He has gone over this total in 73.5% of his games played at OU, which gives us a significant edge in line value, with our implied odds sitting at -277.
Pick: Dillion Gabriel over 1.5 passing touchdowns -180
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