Real Madrid’s bid to repeat in the Champions League continues against Arsenal on Tuesday.
Los Blancos are essentially co-favorites with Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain to win the competition, and they’re -184 to advance past Arsenal in the quarterfinals.
The Gunners are a lukewarm +135 favorite on the three-way moneyline for Tuesday’s first leg in North London.
Looking for some Champions League action?
Check out Caesars Sportsbook promo code POSTBETDYW, which offers 10 100 percent profit boosts.
Arsenal’s season may feel like a disappointment, but that’s a bit harsh for a team that has spent the entire campaign in second place in the Premier League behind a historically good Liverpool side.
They may not be in contention to win the Premier League, but the numbers still paint the Gunners as one of the best teams in the world.
Arsenal has the ninth-best expected goal difference among all teams in Europe’s big five leagues.
Their 26.8 expected goals conceded is the fifth-best mark.
Real Madrid’s numbers are also terrific, and they’ve got an embarrassment of riches with Vinicius Jr., Kylian Mbappe, and Jude Bellingham, but the gap between these two teams may not be as wide as the odds suggest.
Real Madrid absolutely deserves to be the betting favorite in this matchup, but it does seem like bettors are overreacting to outside forces in this matchup.
At the same time that Real Madrid is likely a touch overrated because of its pedigree in this tournament, Arsenal is being underrated because of the perception that its having a disappointing season.
The Pick: Arsenal to advance +148
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, IA, IL, KY, LA, MD, ME, NY, OH, TN, VA, WY or DC. Must register using eligible promo code. First wager after registration must qualify. Awarded as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire 30 days after receipt. Bonus Bet amount not returned for winning bets. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling Problem? If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or MD: visit mdgamblinghelp.org or WV: visit 1800gambler.net; AZ: Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP; IN: Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT; IA: Call 1-800-BETSOFF. ©2025, Caesars Entertainment. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER MA: Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org, NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)