An old NBA adage says the closeout game is the hardest win in a playoff series. 

The rationale is that a team facing elimination will empty its tank because of desperation and resolve. Plus, the team that is close to advancing often plays tight and “not to lose,” rather than loose and free. 

For the most part, I subscribe to this philosophy.

We just saw this situation Saturday with the Oklahoma City Thunder eking out a two-point win as a 15-point favorite to finish the sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.

However, I think the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers are in an unusual scenario, as Indiana is a 7.5-point home favorite Tuesday with a 3-1 lead in the series. 

So far, the Bucks have only outplayed them in one half of basketball. An outlier performance from Gary Trent Jr. in the second half of Game 3 is what has prevented a sweep. This is a lopsided matchup. 

Additionally, the loss of Milwaukee star guard Damian Lillard to an Achilles tear is a severe blow emotionally, and it makes this a strong play.

The Bucks do not seem like a team that will show fight, knowing they have to win three straight games. The players are outmanned and know a complicated offseason is here. 

I am 39-30-1 ATS in this Post sports section and will lay the points with Indy as my next play.

The Play: Pacers -7.5 (-115, BetMGM)

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.