In a weird way, the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs have switched profiles in Round 1. 

For the Bruins, the clearest avenue to success is a game that features more scoring chances and space to operate. This allows their goaltenders, whether it be Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark, to be the difference. 

For the Maple Leafs, who finished second in the NHL in goals per game this season, the best path to a win is to make life easy on their mercurial goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, and keep things tidy so that their elite playmakers can provide the big moment in a tight contest. 

That is not how you’d expect a series between the Bruins, known for their stout defense and commitment to structure, and the Maple Leafs, known for their high-octane offense, to play out. 

But each team’s strengths and weaknesses in this particular season are pushing this series in that direction.

Toronto’s blue line is a liability with the puck, so that puts pressure on the forwards to think defense-first and not cheat.

The Leafs can ill-afford mistakes, knowing that falling behind by multiple goals will be tough sledding against Boston’s goaltenders and defense corps. 

The Bruins will look to exploit those weaknesses by being aggressive on the forecheck and forcing Toronto’s defensemen into making mistakes.

That means playing with a little more risk in their game in order to increase the pressure on the Leafs when they have the puck. 

On top of all of this is the fact that these are two evenly matched teams.

The Bruins were a slight favorite to win the best-of-seven, but no series in Round 1 had tighter odds than Boston vs. Toronto.

After splitting the first two games, the betting market has deemed this thing a coin flip, which is essentially where the odds for Game 3 currently sit. 

That all makes sense. The Bruins were the better team in Game 1, but Toronto showed some resolve in Game 2 to get the series back on level terms.

The Leafs had to come back from a pair of one-goal deficits and allowed Auston Matthews to be the difference-maker in the end. 

And while Matthews is one of the best players on the planet and is one of a few skaters who can win a best-of-seven on his own, it’s not a formula that seems all that sustainable.

Toronto, which has played both games without William Nylander, will need more production from Mitch Marner and stronger play from its defense corps to keep up with the Bruins, but even then it’s still hard to be sure that Samsonov will be composed throughout this series. 

The Bruins will need to find a way to slow down Matthews, especially in Toronto when the Leafs will get the last change, but if they can do that they should have the edge in Game 3 and beyond. 

Matthews could very just take over and that may be enough to win this series, but there are just too many question marks beyond No. 34 to view this series as a coin flip, even if Toronto now has home-ice advantage. 

Boston’s goaltending and Toronto’s haphazard defense give enough of an edge to the Bruins in this best-of-seven.

Recommendation: Bruins to win the series (-110, FanDuel).