Sean Payton returns to his old stomping grounds in New Orleans on Thursday night after spending 15 years as the Saints’ head coach.
After spending a decade and a half coaching Drew Brees, the longtime offensive guru is now trying to help mold rookie quarterback Bo Nix in Denver.
New Orleans is also likely to start a rookie quarterback — Spencer Rattler, who is expected to fill in for the injured Derek Carr.
Wide receivers Rashid Shaheed (concussion) and Chris Olave (knee) join Carr on a lengthy Saints injury report, and their absences play a significant factor in this week’s same-game parlay.
Having hit three in a row for The Post, I’m on a roll with my primetime SGPs. Let’s see if we can extend that streak on Thursday night.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -3 (-102) | -142 | o37 (-110) |
| Saints | +3 (-118) | +120 | u37 (-110) |
At 3-3, the Broncos are already halfway to surpassing their win-total projection of 5.5 games.
While Payton’s official title with Denver is head coach, he has the final say in all player personnel decisions.
As a result, his fingerprints are all over the choice to oust Russell Wilson and select Nix with the 12th overall pick.
Nix went on to win the starting job and hasn’t completely fallen flat on his face. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he has a quality defense ranked seventh in FTN Fantasy’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
The Saints’ rookie quarterback could be severely compromised if his two leading receivers can’t go. Neither Shaheed nor Olave practiced this week.
Both players are likely to miss the game, given the quick turnaround in a short week.
Look for the Broncos to do enough to get over the line and escape with a victory.
Despite a small NFL sample size with Rattler, fading a rookie quarterback in his second start is practically an autoplay.
Rattler threw two interceptions in his first game, and the Broncos defense ranks in the top half (10th) of the league in takeaways.
Couple that with him throwing to backup receivers, and we have the potential makings of a game riddled with chaos.
Moreover, if you like the Broncos to win, there’s a greater chance the Saints will have to chase the game and play from behind.
Rattler could be running for his life against a Broncos defense with the NFL’s highest blitz rate (41.8%). Denver also ranks second in sacks (26) and third in quarterback pressures (65).
However, Rattler does have some escapability and can use his legs to scramble out of the pocket.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos’ secondary ranks second in pass coverage, and if Rattler struggles to find open targets, he’s likely to tuck the ball and run.
He ran for 27 yards on four carries against the Buccaneers, and this prop feels short at 20.5.
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.