The Houston Astros enter Monday night’s game against the Atlanta Braves with a record of just 6-11, buried in last place in the AL West.
At the beginning of the season, this looked like a matchup of superheavyweights. It still is if you only count offensive production.
That’s because the Astros’ pitching staff is suddenly a disaster with a 5.23 ERA after 17 games.
Meanwhile, Houston’s offensive wRC+ of 130 ranks second in MLB. The team above them? The Braves (131), who have also lived up to lofty offensive expectations thus far.
This sets up nicely for a bet on the total for Monday night’s game. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -1.5 (+134 | -108 | o9.5 (-118) |
| Astros | +1.5 (-162) | -108 | u9.5 (-104) |
The Astros’ xBA of .274 ranks first in baseball, and they own the lowest strikeout rate at 16.8%. The Braves xBA of .271 ranks second, while their 46.3% hard-hit rate ranks first.
Both of these offenses enter Monday’s matchup in dominant form, and will make nightmare matchups for two unproven starters.
Due to the Astros stockpile of injuries, top prospect Spencer Arrighetti is up in the big leagues earlier than preferred.
His first start was a disaster, as he allowed seven earned runs across three innings at Kansas City last week.
ZiPS projects a 4.50 ERA in 2024 for Arrighetti, who owned a Stuff+ of only 56 in his first outing.
Darius Vines will start for Atlanta. He pitched to a 4.75 xFIP in two 2024 Triple-A starts, and a 3.98 ERA in 20 MLB innings last year.
Vines’ fastball tops out at just 89, and his arsenal rates out well below league average.
These have been the two best offenses in the league this season, and their preseason expectations, as well as current underlying results, suggest that their dominance will continue.
Arrighetti is obviously better than he showed in his MLB debut against the Royals, but still a sub 4.50 ERA is unlikely this season.
He’s backed by a bullpen which has been in shambles, too, and is also missing some key pieces.
The Astros could very well hit their way out of trouble against Vines and get into the Braves’ pen quickly.
Even a high total of 9.5 doesn’t fully account for this situation, and there is value betting any price better than -130.