Borussia Dortmund has turned into quite an adept tournament team over the last few seasons.
Dortmund were the runners-up in the 2023-24 Champions League, quarterfinalists this past season in the same competition and now they’re into final eight at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup.
Dortmund are underdogs against Real Madrid on Saturday, but Niko Kovac’s team has pulled these kinds of upsets plenty of times over the past two years.
Will Real Madrid fall victim to Dortmund at MetLife on Saturday?
Real Madrid started the FIFA Club World Cup with a middling effort in a 1-1 draw against Al-Hilal, but they’ve hardly put a foot wrong since.
Los Blancos have won their last three matches by a combined score of 7-1, and their latest result, a 1-0 victory over Juventus in the Round of 16, was their most impressive performance of the tournament.
Madrid has shown some understandable growing pains under new manager Xabi Alonso, but things have sharpened up with each passing match.
The win over Juventus was a defensive masterclass, as Los Blancos held The Old Lady to just 0.8 expected goals and one big scoring chance.
While Real Madrid’s defensive form is trending in the right direction, Dortmund’s defensive form has fluctuated throughout this tournament.
BVB held Fluminense to just 0.64 expected goals in a nil-nil draw in their opening match, but they shipped three goals to Mamelodi Sundowns and were just outshot, 14-6, by Monterrey in the Round of 16.
Dortmund can outscore their defensive flaws against a lot of opponents, but Madrid will punish them if they’re loose.
The FIFA Club World Cup has produced a few surprises, but we’re now into the business end of the tournament, so you’d expect that the contenders will have their A-game for these do-or-die matches.
If Real Madrid is at its best, they should be able to do some damage against a Dortmund defense that can be a bit of a mess.
The Play: Real Madrid -1.5 (+165, BetMGM)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.