Seeing what’s happening to starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara pains me, but the Marlins pushed him too hard.

He tossed 434 innings between 2021 and 2022 with a 98 mph average fastball velocity.

Almost nobody can survive that type of usage and ligament stress. 

Additionally, Alcantara’s sinkerball-heavy, ground-ball-heavy pitching style took a hit once MLB banned the shift. 

(12:10 p.m. Eastern)

Put the two together, and that’s how you get a collapse.

After posting a 2.28 ERA last season, he’s at 4.97 this year.

On Wednesday, the defending NL Cy Young winner will square off against a potential AL Cy Young winner. 

Toronto starting pitcher Kevin Gausman is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

His deadly split-finger fastball fuels a ridiculous 32.2 percent strikeout rate which fuels the second-highest strikeout minus walk rate in baseball (25.8 percent, trailing only Spencer Strider). 

Gausman’s 3.01 ERA doesn’t pop off the page, but his numbers have been dragged down by three outlier performances (seven earned runs at Houston; eight at Boston; six vs. Minnesota).

Otherwise, Gausman has tossed at least six innings while allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of his 15 starts this season. 

It’s also worth mentioning that the Blue Jays are much better defensively, so Gausman should get more support than Alcantara on Tuesday. 

I power rate these two lineups and bullpens similarly, so I highly recommend a bet on the ascending Gausman against the fading Alcantara. 

Blue Jays moneyline (-140, FanDuel)