President Biden is running behind both former President Donald Trump and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin among voters in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to a 2024 election poll out Tuesday.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found 45% of Wisconsin voters support Trump and 42% back Biden — a three-point dip in the incumbent’s support from last month, in which the same poll showed him ahead of the former president by a single point. The remaining 12% of voters remain undecided in the head-to-head race.
Baldwin, 62, is polling ahead of both presidential rivals in the Badger State and beating GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde by seven percentage points: 46% to 39%. Another 15% of respondents remain undecided.
The poll also found Trump, 77, ahead of Biden, 81, by four percentage points, 41% to 37%, in a hypothetical five-way race, followed by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on 7% and with fellow independent Cornel West and Green Party leader Jill Stein each at 1%.
“Independent voters in Wisconsin break for President Biden over Trump 41% to 35%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Voters under 30 are split: 39% support Trump, 37% Biden, and 25% are undecided.”
A higher percentage of expected Trump voters also plan to split their ticket and cast a ballot for Baldwin than Biden voters who say they would do the same for Hovde.
“Among those who support Trump in the presidential general election, 9% plan to split their ticket and vote for Baldwin, 74% support Hovde, and 17% are undecided,” Kimball added. “Of Biden voters, 90% support Baldwin, 4% plan to split their ticket and vote for Hovde, and 5% are undecided.”
Biden, 81, is facing concerns over his job performance and age, with 62% of Wisconsin voters saying the latter raises “serious doubts” about his re-election bid. Just 39% say age is “not a serious consideration” for them.
Fewer voters (56%) say that Trump’s 91 criminal charges “raise doubts” about pulling the lever for the former president, compared with 44% who do not consider the indictments “a serious consideration” in their choice.
Biden currently holds a 38% approval rating among Wisconsin voters, whereas 53% disapprove of his job performance — and a plurality (44%) believe Wisconsin is “on the wrong track,” while 36% say it is “headed in the right direction.”
Nearly a third (31%) cite the economy as their top issue in November, but 13% say democracy, pushing immigration concerns down to 11%.
Recent national polls have listed immigration and unlawful border crossings as the most serious problem during the election year, often followed by the economy or inflation.
In Wisconsin, 10% of voters cite healthcare as their top issue, 7% say education, 7% say housing affordability, 7% say crime and 7% say abortion access.
“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump over Biden, 57% to 24%, while voters who say threats to democracy is the top issue break for Biden over Trump, 83% to 14%,” Kimball said.
Continuing the theme of statewide Democrats running ahead of Biden, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers has a 46% approval rating and a 41% disapproval rating, according to the poll.
The Emerson College/Hill poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Wisconsin Feb. 20-24, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus three percentage points.