President Biden has a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in the popular vote of a hypothetical 2024 matchup, a new national poll shows.
The Quinnipiac University survey shows Biden leading Trump 50% to 44% after the same poll had the incumbent edging out his rival, 47% to 46%, in December.
Biden’s strong numbers are driven by the support of 58% of female voters, 52% of independents and 62% of voters with college degrees.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on,” said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy. “Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”
By contrast, Trump wins male voters with 53% support in that demographic, but only captures 40% of independents.
Biden still leads Trump if third-party candidates are introduced into the race.
In a five-person contest, Biden receives 39%, Trump receives 37%, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. gets 14%, independent candidate Cornel West comes in at 3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.
The 45th president leads Biden among Hispanic voters, getting 47% compared to the Democrat’s 45%. However, that’s more than offset by Biden’s advantage among black voters, were Trump has just 16% support.
The poll is a significant outlier in favor of Biden, who trails Trump 47.1% to 44.6% in the RealClearPolitics average of polling data.
Trump’s Republican rival, Nikki Haley, would defeat Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head race by five percentage points in the popular vote (47%-42%), but loses with the the inclusion of third-party candidates, according to the survey.
In the same five-way race, Biden gets 36% support, Haley only gets 29%, RFK Jr. gets 21%, West comes in at 3% and Stein gets 2%.
In the Republican race, 77% of national GOP voters and Republican leaners support Trump, while 21% support Haley.
More than three-quarters (78%) of respondents said Trump would be a better leader than Haley, while 77% said he had better policy ideas.
On the Democratic side, Biden boasts 78% support for the nomination, with self-help author Marianne Williamson on 11% and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) at 6%.
The president’s job approval rating stands at 41%, his highest in the Quinnipiac survey since June 2023, while 55% disapprove of his performance while in office.
A majority of undeclared voters said they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy (55%), foreign policy (58%), the southern border (65%) and the Israel-Hamas war (58%).
On the southern border, 61% of respondents said they thought the situation constituted a “crisis.” Among party lines, 81% of Republicans, 43% of Democrats and 60% of independents said the same.
The poll was conducted via phone Jan. 25-29 and included 1,650 self-identified registered voters with a with a margin of error of 2.4%. The sample included 696 Republican and Republican-leaning voters with a margin of error of 3.7% and 693 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters with a margin of error of 3.7%.
Another poll published Wednesday by Bloomberg News/ Morning Consult showed Biden lagging behind Trump in seven key battleground states — six of which the Democrat won in 2020.
The survey showed Trump besting Biden in Arizona (47%-44%), Georgia (49%-41%), Michigan (47%-42%), Nevada (48%-40%), North Carolina (49%-39%), Pennsylvania (48%-45%) and Wisconsin (49%-44%).