The Biden administration and European officials have reportedly begun shifting their Ukraine strategy away from achieving total victory over Vladimir Putin’s invading forces — to instead strengthening Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table.
In the wake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s stalled counteroffensive — and the increasingly difficult proposition of securing more aid from the United States and Europe — officials are switching their focus to shoring up Ukraine’s defensive fortifications in the east, a Biden administration official and a European diplomat told Politico.
The move — which will bolster air defense systems and build new works along the eastern front and the country’s northern border with Belarus — is meant to help the Ukrainians if and when they enter negotiations to end the nearly two-year war.
“That’s been our theory of the case throughout: The only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” the official, a White House spokesperson granted anonymity by Politico, told the outlet. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.”
“We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory,” the spokesperson continued, adding that no peace talks have started yet.
“It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive.”
Publicly, however, the White House and the Pentagon denied the policy change and said they still support Ukraine’s ultimate goal of pushing the Russian armies entirely out of the country, Politico reported.
The National Security Council warned that the United States is “nearing the end of our ability” to give more military assistance to Ukraine — but insisted the Biden administration remains “very much focused on helping [Ukraine] on offense and defense.”
“We are having literally daily conversations with the Ukrainians about the battlefield, about what their needs are and their intentions,” John Kirby, head of strategic communications at the National Security Council, told Politico in an earlier interview.
The administration can’t publicly back off because it’s said since the war’s inception that it fully supports Ukraine’s effort to rid itself of Russian soldiers.
But President Biden has moved away from promising the US would support Ukraine for “as long it takes,” instead saying that the US will back the country for “as long as we can.”
He has also said Ukraine already won an “enormous victory” that stymied Putin’s plans.
Experts believe this means Ukraine might have to settle for a cease-fire with Moscow — which might leave Ukraine divided, according to Politico.
“Time has become a stark disadvantage when it comes to Ukraine’s manpower and industrial capacity, and that’s true even if the West continues its support,” George Beebe, a former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA who is now head of strategy for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told the outlet.
“The longer this goes on, the more we’re going to have to concede up front just to get the Russians to the negotiating table.”
Others think taking up a defensive strategy will help Ukraine in the long run.
“It’s very likely that going to a defensive posture would allow the Ukrainians to conserve resources while making future Russian progress look unlikely,” Anthony Pfaff, an intelligence expert at the US Army War College who co-authored a study that forecast Putin’s Ukraine invasion years ago, told Politico.
The European Union may also look to move more quickly on Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which could put the Ukrainians in a better negotiating position despite the military stalemate.
But it would also likely infuriate Putin, who claimed Ukraine’s wish to join the alliance was one of the reasons he invaded in the first place.
Biden still supports Ukraine’s entry into the treaty organization, Kirby said.
“President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” he insisted.
Putin may also be willing to compromise, Politico said, especially if he’s allowed to keep the fifth of Ukraine his forces have already seized.
But that news — first reported last week by the New York Times — appears to have been greeted skeptically by the Biden administration.
“I’m not aware of any serious discussions at this point,” the spokesperson said.
Kirby said Putin must make the first move — and he hasn’t yet.
“While we all would like to see this war end immediately,” Kirby said, Putin “has shown no indication of entering into good-faith negotiations.”