The UConn Huskies have the Sweet 16 – and history – in their sights on Sunday.
On Friday, the Huskies defeated Oklahoma, 67-59, in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, giving the program its 13th consecutive win in the Big Dance, tying Duke for the longest winning streak since the field expanded in 1985.
A win over No. 1 Florida on Sunday would put Dan Hurley’s program in rarefied air.
The Gators are a 9.5-point favorite in the early tip on Sunday afternoon.
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UConn is a tricky team to handicap. A program that has won 13 straight games in the NCAA Tournament deserves your respect, but bettors can get carried away in these situations and give too much credit to a team for past performances.
In reality, what the 2022-23 and 2023-24 Huskies accomplished should have minimal impact on how you handicap the current team.
UConn’s season-long numbers paint it as a strong, but not elite team. The Huskies are 32nd overall in KenPom’s power ratings and they’re one spot back in BartTorvik’s model.
That puts them a ways behind the Gators, who are third overall by KenPom’s numbers and fourth according to BartTorvik.
It should tell you a lot about the gap between these two teams that bookmakers have this number sitting close to double-digits.
There will likely be plenty of UConn money that comes pouring in from bettors who can’t believe they’re getting the two-time defending champs at +9.5, so the bookmakers are showing their hand that they expect sharp money on Florida to balance that action out.
At the risk of underrating the Huskies’ pedigree, this does seem like a game that could unfurl quickly. The Gators own the most efficient offense in the country, and UConn’s most glaring weakness is on defense.
And while UConn is the 15th-most efficient offense in the country, the Huskies will need to try to figure out the ninth-best defense.
Anything under 10 looks good on Florida on Sunday.
The Pick: Florida -10 or better
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