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the Cyclones have struggled to find any consistency on the offensive side of the ball.
However, they will have an avenue for success through the air in this matchup.
Iowa State has kept the ball in the hands of quarterback Rocco Becht quite a bit this season, as it’s thrown the ball at the 36th-highest rate in the country.
Becht has been decent at the helm of this passing attack. In particular, he’s been great at getting the ball out quickly, which has led to the nation’s lowest sack rate but also only an average of 6.8 yards per pass.
However, if that trend continues, he should be able to keep the chains moving quite often.
Cincinnati’s secondary is 131st in PFF’s Coverage grading, and that poor coverage has led to it also ranking 108th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
The offense hasn’t been the issue for the Bearcats this season. They’re coming into this matchup off of three straight losses, but they’re 60th in Rushing Success Rate and 39th in Passing Success Rate.
So, all in all, it’s not too bad.
However, they could struggle in this matchup against the Cyclones. Iowa State’s defense is its identity, and it’s been solid in all aspects. The Clones will match up against the Bearcats’ rushing attack up front, as both squads are close in Line Yards.
Iowa State will have to account for Emory Jones in the rushing attack, but the quarterback has yet to be explosive with his carries. If the Clones can contain him in the pocket, they’ll be in good shape.
Additionally, Jones, who’s been much improved as a passer this season, is in for his toughest task yet. The Cyclones’ secondary has been tremendous, as it ranks 24th in PFF’s Coverage rating.
Their excellent coverage has led to them ranking 22nd in opponent completion percentage allowed and 25th in yards per pass allowed.
This spread has been stuck in the dead zone all week, as it sits between the key numbers of six and three.
However, our deep dive shows that this game should sway in favor of the Cyclones.
Their scuffling offense will have a path to success through the air in this matchup, and they should be able to contain Jones and the Bearcats’ offense.
So, give me the points, as Iowa State will be a live dog.
Pick: Iowa State +5
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