The Yankees and Orioles slugged are set to slug it out in the Bronx. With a matchup this good, we may see fireworks on the field and in the sky this afternoon. See how our expert is playing the matchup, and be sure to make the game better by claiming a great offer from BetMGM.
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There may not be a better team to play on Independence Day than the New York Yankees. They were the team of America’s pastime, but they have a tough task ahead of them this afternoon.
The Bronx Bombers will continue their series with the Baltimore Orioles, and all indications point to bombs being hit as it is hot and the wind will be blowing out at Yankee Stadium. This game could be decided by who hits the most long balls, especially when considering the starting pitchers.
The Orioles are the one team that has been able to hang around in the AL East. They enter this matchup 10th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA. They have received contributions from a multitude of players, both young and old, which has made their lineup a chore for opposing pitchers.
They are in line to give Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt trouble this afternoon. To his credit, Schmidt has put it all together over the last month or so, as he has not allowed more than three earned runs over his last eight starts. One of them was a solid five-inning effort against this Baltimore club.
However, Schmidt’s box score against the Orioles may be clean, but he is due to regress against them, and Baltimore could do significant damage if its hitters get to him this afternoon.
Schmidt’s recent stretch has come with good fortune as he ranks in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity and 21st in hard-hit rate. The Orioles are a part of that sample size, and their xBA against Schmidt is 47 points higher.
Although, it doesn’t stop there, as the Orioles xSLG is nearly double what they’ve actually posted off Schmidt. Expect the Birds’ positive regression to show on the scoreboard in this matchup.
The Yankees are still without their star slugger, Aaron Judge, whose absence has had a significant impact on this team. They are 16-19 without him this season, and their offensive numbers are even more concerning.
Judge went down with a toe injury on June 4th. So a month since his injury, here’s what the Yankees have done: New York has hit .213 and has the lowest wOBA in the majors.
While they are indeed in a position to benefit from the park factors this afternoon, their lineup has not shown they have the ability to capitalize on it. It also doesn’t help that they will face a starter in Kyle Gibson who is due for some positive regression.
Back Baltimore in this one and make your July 4th even sweeter.
Pick: Orioles ML +100
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