The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies conclude their series this afternoon. See how our expert is playing the matchup and be sure to make the game better by claiming a great offer from BetMGM.
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Bryce Elder, a young and reliable starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, has shown great potential. However, recent performances indicate that he is due for some negative regression, which is starting to take effect. In his last three starts, he has allowed ten earned runs, and now he faces a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that is gaining momentum and resembling the team that made a World Series run in 2022.
Taking the mound for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, who possesses impressive peripheral statistics, although the desired results haven’t fully materialized yet.
Elder currently holds a solid 2.60 ERA, but his 3.91 xERA suggests a level of concern due to his susceptibility to hard contact. His Average Exit Velocity of 90.3 mph and Hard-Hit Rate of 44.4% both rank in the 25th percentile or lower. Additionally, his strikeout rate stands at just 20.7%, which may limit his ability to exploit the Phillies’ weaknesses in that area.
On the other hand, the Braves boast a formidable lineup. They have nine active hitters with an xwOBA over .320, including three hitters surpassing .400 against right-handed pitchers this season. Remarkably, the Braves lead the MLB in June with a 150 wRC+ alongside a 17.8% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate, and an impressive .937 OPS.
The Phillies have recently regained their form from last year, exhibiting a 9.2% walk rate, a .787 OPS, and a 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in June. Furthermore, five of their hitters have recorded an xwOBA over .340 against righties this month.
Overall, both offenses are currently in excellent form and performing at their best.
Pick: Over 8.5
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