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Supporters of Ohio State might point to Kyle McCord’s impressive QBR (87.2, ranking 6th), as well as the marked progress the Silver Bullets have made in their second year under Jim Knowles. Nonetheless, it’s essential to acknowledge that this matchup does not favor the Buckeyes.
First and foremost, the Buckeyes are grappling with injuries to three key starters. Cornerback Denzel Burke, wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, and running back TreVeyon Henderson, although they may attempt to play, could be operating at less than full capacity.
Even in the scenario where the Buckeyes were at full strength, they would encounter difficulties in consistently advancing against the Penn State defense. Manny Diaz’s defensive unit stands as the top-rated team in both Success Rate and Havoc generated.
Notably, they excel as the country’s premier pass-rushing team, averaging 4.5 sacks per game.
McCord, shielded by the nation’s 48th-rated pass-blocking offensive line (according to PFF), is likely to find himself in a few precarious situations during this contest. He has already thrown seven turnover-worthy passes this season and lost two fumbles in his last four starts.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State has excelled in safeguarding Drew Allar and the football. In six games, the Nittany Lions have committed just three turnovers, with Allar yet to throw an interception in his career.
Their offensive strategy leans heavily on the offensive line and an exceptional group of running backs. Data from Sports Info Solutions indicates that Allar has only attempted 19 passes with at least 15 air yards out of a total of 181 attempts. This cautious approach is deliberate, coming from Allar and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich.
While Ohio State has displayed excellence in limiting explosive plays, Penn State is perfectly content with a short-passing game to advance downfield.
In a contest likely to feature fewer points, my preference tilts toward supporting the superior defense, the stronger running game, and a quarterback who has demonstrated remarkable composure.
Pick: Penn State ML +165
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