The Texas Rangers are looking to fend off the Houston Astros and hold their divisional lead. However, the odds are not in their favor to do so. See how our expert is playing the matchup and be sure to make the even better by claiming a great offer from BetMGM.
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When comparing the AL West-leading teams, a mere one-game difference suggests they should be power rated evenly. However, I firmly believe Texas holds the edge, supported by its superior run differential (+140 to +57).
While Houston struggles in extra-inning games (1-7), Texas faces challenges in one-run games (7-14), making regression less of a factor for either team.
The line favors Houston due to lefty ace Framber Valdez, considered better than the Rangers’ lefty starter, Andrew Heaney. But is Valdez truly significantly better? Both have an expected ERA over 4.00, and Framber has allowed 15 earned runs in his last four outings, including four against the Athletics.
Heaney, on the other hand, recently yielded four earned runs to the Dodgers and seven to the Nationals, but also had shutout performances against the Guardians and Astros.
I believe Heaney can hold his own against Valdez, and the Rangers hold other advantages. With a remarkable 138 wRC+ against southpaws, their lineup is formidable. Additionally, their top-five defense, according to Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, enhances their edge.
Surprisingly, Texas boasts the bullpen advantage. Over the past two weeks, their reliever xFIP (4.71) is better than Houston’s (4.88), and the Astros’ bullpen has faced considerable strain recently.
Pick: Texas Rangers +150
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