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We have picked on Clarke Schmidt quite a bit in the first month of the season and, thus far, it’s been successful. What’s great is that he’s due for significant regression and will be up against a lineup that should knock him around Monday.
Schmidt has been very fortunate through his first five starts of the season, and the numbers show it, as his xERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.55.
On Monday, he’ll face the best lineup in the American League in the Baltimore Orioles, who lead the AL in wRC+.
It just so happens that these Orioles are also due for positive regression against Schmidt. In 76 combined at-bats, they have hit just .211 of Schmidt, but their average exit velocity of 90.3 mph tells a different story.
Overall, the club’s xBA is 32 points higher and its xSLG is 97 points higher. This points to a short outing for Schmidt, which has been the trend for him.
He went under this total in 77 percent of his starts last season, and has yet to surpass it this year. With this start being his toughest test yet, the under is the way to go.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt under 16.5 outs -115
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