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New York Post
28 Jun 2023


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The Phillies capitalized on the Cubs’ fatigue after their trip to London, securing a 5-1 victory in the opening game of their three-game series on Tuesday night. Left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez delivered an impressive performance, throwing 7.1 dominant innings with excellent command.

Looking ahead, right-hander Aaron Nola aims to replicate that success on Wednesday against Cubs’ starter Drew Smyly. It has been a mixed season for Nola, initially struggling with decreased fastball velocity and fewer strikeouts while adjusting to the pitch clock. However, he has shown improvement in recent weeks, resembling the Nola who was a top-five NL Cy Young candidate in 2022, thanks to the return of his fastball velocity.

Although Smyly lacks overpowering stuff, he is a seasoned pitcher with an exceptional curveball. Over the years, he has consistently improved his expected pitching metrics, now being regarded as a league-average starter or possibly even better.

The starting pitchers’ handedness presents a challenging offensive split for both teams this season. The Phillies may consider benching Brandon Marsh, potentially replacing him with right-handed hitter Cristian Pache. While this move would enhance the Phillies’ defensive outlook, it could weaken their overall offense.

Similarly, at third base, defensive specialist Edmundo Sosa is expected to start over Alec Bohm, forming the Phillies’ strongest defensive lineup to support Nola. The Cubs’ lineup has performed below average against right-handed pitchers, ranking 18th in wRC+ this year (10th against left-handed pitchers) with a wRC+ of 96. On the other hand, the Phillies struggle against left-handed pitchers due to the lack of right-handed bench options and the absence of power hitter Rhys Hoskins.

While Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber handle lefties well, the depth players do not perform as strongly. Considering a game at Wrigley Field, it is essential to note the weather forecast, which predicts wind blowing across the field from right to left. While it may not significantly impact the overall game, it could potentially affect left-handed power.

Based on the analysis, I would bet on the total runs being under 8.5. This matchup favors both starting pitchers, and both teams’ top bullpen arms are well-rested.

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