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If it isn’t clear by now, the Yankees are not the team we thought they were offensively. Even with Aaron Judge back in the lineup, they are still tied for the worst team batting average in baseball and are 20th in wRC+.
What’s interesting is that their contact metrics suggest positive regression, as they are eighth in xWOBACON. However, that positive regression may not come tonight as they have a sneaky, arduous task on their hands in Kutter Crawford.
Crawford has been far more effective than his 4.36 ERA may imply. His xERA is drastically lower at 3.63, and that is because he’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact this season by having hitters chase pitches just barely out of the zone.
We should see him have plenty of success against this Yankees lineup, as the only true threats in the order are Judge and Stanton. We saw Crawford struggle with command in his last outing, but that is not typical of him. So, all the positive regression should work in his favor tonight.
The Red Sox are a team that was a pleasant surprise based on the quality of the AL East. They have found a way to remain competitive, and their lineup is a big reason why.
They enter with the third-highest team batting average in baseball but have lacked consistency in the power department, which has led to them getting outslugged in many cases.
However, that may not be the case tonight as they get to face Carlos Rodon. Rodon looks to be a shell of himself since dawing the pinstripes, but what’s peculiar is that his stuff has not diminished.
Rodon’s biggest issue has been command, both in and out of the zone. His walk rate is up three percent, and his fastball has been living up in the zone.
Though the Red Sox may be the team to help him out a big as they have the third-highest chase contact rate in the majors. If Boston doesn’t stay disciplined, they could minimize their opportunities against Rodon.
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