The Dallas Stars are up 3-1 in their series with the Winnipeg Jets, but the numbers suggest this best-of-seven set has been a lot tighter than that scoreline would suggest.
The Stars and Jets have each scored seven goals at 5-on-5, and they’ve essentially split the shot attempts and shots on goal down the middle at full strength.
The difference in this series has been Dallas’ power play going 4-for-11.
Winnipeg, meanwhile, has just one goal on the man advantage in this series.
The Jets are a -125 favorite at home in a must-win spot Thursday night.
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There are plenty of ways to win a hockey game and playoff series, and the Stars are showing they can beat teams in a number of ways this spring.
Dallas counter-punched well against the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1, and in Round 2 the Stars are getting results thanks to quality special teams and monstrous individual efforts.
Mikko Rantanen, Jake Oettinger, and Mikael Granlund have all been difference makers for the Stars at different points in this series, while the Jets aren’t seeing their best players tilt the ice enough.
The silver lining for the Jets is that they are doing a lot of things right in this series.
They are going toe-to-toe with the Stars at 5-on-5, and with some improvements on the margins they could find their way back into this series.
Winnipeg was the best team in the NHL this season, so it would be foolish to count them out of this series, especially since they’ve played relatively well.
Oettinger has been better than Hellebuyck, and the Stars are getting much more from their special teams than the Jets, but everything else suggests this series has been razor tight.
Winnipeg is good value to keep its season alive at home Thursday night.
The Play: Jets -120 or better
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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