San Diego State opens its final Mountain West season at home Friday night, looking to build on back-to-back wins against Cal and Northern Illinois.
The Aztecs, who are favored by 5.5 points at bet365, are 3-1 and have already matched last year’s win total; they’re showing early signs of a turnaround under Sean Lewis.
Colorado State, meanwhile, has stumbled to a 1-3 start and is still searching for offensive rhythm after a quarterback switch.
With both programs set to join the new-look Pac-12 next year, Friday’s game feels like a tone-setter for the road ahead.
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San Diego State’s offense has some serious red zone inefficiencies, averaging a touchdown just once every 3.4 receptions — among the five worst marks in the FBS — and has failed to record a single red zone TD from its wide receivers since 2023.
The Aztecs also collapse when opponents play clean: they were winless last season (0-6) when teams committed under 60 yards in penalties.
Colorado State’s defense has quietly held up well after the catch, ranking among the top third nationally by limiting WRs to just 12.2 yards after reception.
If the Rams can avoid big penalties and keep SDSU’s already sputtering pass game contained, this matchup may be closer than the line suggests.
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.