Once again we find ourselves in a hold-your-nose “Thursday Night Football” game.
The two-win Chicago Bears welcome in the one-win Carolina Panthers.
If you wanted to skip this game and watch “The Golden Bachelor” instead, I wouldn’t blame you.
But there is a player prop that I am eyeing, one I think the market has bottomed out on.
That’s Miles Sanders, the big free-agent signing in the offseason for the Panthers after eclipsing nearly 1,300 yards in Philadelphia the year prior.
Sanders suffered a shoulder injury against the Lions in Week 5 and missed the team’s following game against Miami.
He returned and played a backseat role to Chuba Hubbard against the Texans — just two carries — before playing just 25 percent of the snaps against the Colts on Sunday.
It’s what Sanders did in those snaps, though, that gives me reason to believe he’s in for a higher workload against Chicago.
For one, he ran the ball six times for 39 yards, and was targeted five times in the passing game.
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Now it was a negative game script for the majority of the day, but the usage he received should be taken as a positive.
His efficiency led to coach Frank Reich telling reporters that he anticipates an even rotation between Hubbard and Sanders on Thursday night — yet they are priced nearly 20 yards apart.
Sanders’ current yardage prop sits at 20.5, a number he’s eclipsed in five of seven games this season.
While the Bears enter as four-point favorites, the game should be close enough where Carolina won’t abandon its run game.
While Chicago’s defense is running hot — it held Alvin Kamara to 26 yards (nine rushes), Austin Ekeler to 29 yards (15 rushes) and Josh Jacobs to 35 yards (11 rushes) over the last three weeks — this is still PFF’s 24th-ranked rush defense.
Sanders has yet to really get going, and his fall from starter to backup in the depth chart hasn’t helped, but this is still an explosive running back.
Last season for Philly, he had a 12+ yard gain in 15 of 20 of games.
While Hubbard will likely receive the bulk of the carries, I expect Sanders to find himself closer to that double-digit mark.
Another market to dip into with Sanders is in the receiving game.
Aside from Detroit (he left with an injury) and vs. Houston when he played just 12 snaps, Sanders has caught 3+ passes in every game.
He is the Panthers’ best receiving back and averages about 0.2 yards more per route run than Hubbard.
His rush-plus-receiving prop is also a good look.
Carolina has found itself in pass-heavy situations week after week, but I’m expecting this to be different.
Both teams should rely heavily on the ground to move the football and that means more opportunities for Sanders.
It’s also important to note that early in the second half against Indianapolis, Sanders really broke out and saw a bulk of the load.
On the first drive, he had runs of 7, 3 and 11 yards and receptions for 8 and 11 yards. He opened the next drive with an 11-yard run.
Our Action Network projections have Sanders slated for closer to 25 rushing yards, about a 6 percent edge based on the current market.
It’s the bottom of the barrel for Sanders and I’m backing his over in a game where I think he should see both an uptick in carries and production.
The pick: Miles Sanders over 21.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)