No one can stop the Detroit Lions, or so it seems.
Walking into a division matchup is never easy, but coming into an NFC North matchup as 10.5-point favorites against a team that is no cakewalk nearly never happens in the NFL.
However, that’s where the Lions sit as we enter Thanksgiving Day football, as Detroit is the highest-rated team in the NFL in terms of defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
They are the fifth highest-rated DVOA team in the history of the league, according to FTN.
It’s a nightmare matchup for anyone in the league, and even the highest of skeptics like myself will have a hard time fading Detroit.
| Odds | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | +10.5 (-122) | +400 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
| Lions | -10.5 (+100) | -520 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
As BetMGM’s John Ewing points out, favorites of 10 or more points are 12-0 straight up on Thanksgiving and 10-2 against the spread.
However the Bears have done a wonderful job losing close or simply finding a way to lose a game.
Where things get squirrely for the Bears is their run defense, which is among the worst in the NFL.
They are 26th in yards per carry allowed, and DVOA has their run defense rated 30th.
That’s a horrific combination when you factor in the Lions’ multi-faceted rushing attack that includes two top running backs and elite offensive line.
David Montgomery is in poll position to embarrass the Bears on Thanksgiving and there’s no way that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who has a history of running up scores, won’t do so again in a primetime stage this week.
Bet on David Montgomery to plunge into endzone twice against his former team and the Lions to cover the 10.5 points in this one.
Pick: Lions -10.5 (-110, Caesars) | David Montgomery 2+ touchdowns (+320, FanDuel)