Week 6 of the NFL season brings us a pair of ‘Monday Night Football’ matchups to bet on.
The headliner is Bears vs. Commanders, a rematch of one of the most memorable football games of last season that kicks off at 8:15 p.m. on ABC.
It’s the second time in two seasons that we’ll see the top two quarterbacks taken in the 2024 NFL draft go head-to-head. The last time these two teams played, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels threw a game-winning Hail Mary touchdown that completely changed the course of the season for both sides.
Daniels took the league by storm, won Offensive Rookie of the Year, and took the Commanders to the NFC championship game for the first time since 1991.
Meanwhile, 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and the Bears lost the following nine games in a row, then fired their coach after a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Detroit Lions.
The matchup between the two signal-callers will get the bulk of the focus, but I’m looking at the Commanders’ running game for my bet this week.
The Commanders had multiple players splitting carries to start the season, but injuries in their backfield have helped push rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt into the spotlight. In Week 5, we saw Croskey-Merritt’s breakout performance against the Los Angeles Chargers: 111 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries.
Injuries are also part of the reason why Croskey-Merritt has value on “Monday Night Football” against the Bears. Commanders wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown have been ruled out for the game, and Deebo Samuel will be a game-time decision.
Even if Samuel is cleared to play, the Commanders should lean more on their running game with fewer reliable options available in their passing attack.
There’s also a great matchup opportunity for Croskey-Merritt against the Bears. The Bears rank 31st in rushing yards allowed this season, surrendering 164.5 yards to opponents on the ground through four games, and rank 32nd in yards per attempt, allowing runners to rack up 6.1 yards per rush.
The Commanders are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL, averaging a league-best 156.4 yards per game and 5.9 yards per rush. Part of their success is tied to Daniels’ ability as a runner — he ranks second on the team in rushes (26) and yards (124).
The threat of his running ability should keep the Bears defense guessing and give the Commanders chances to get creative with Croskey-Merritt on early downs where he’s done the bulk of his damage.
But Croskey-Merritt is proving that he can make plays on his own. Through five games, he ranks second in the NFL among qualified rushers in yards before contact per attempt (3.4) and is tied for first in yards after contact per attempt (3.2).
Given the Bears’ struggles against the run, I’m eying Croskey-Merritt’s rushing yards prop for my bet this week. Most sportsbooks have the rookie listed at 69.5 yards against the Bears, and he has topped that number in the two games he saw at least 10 carries. I’m willing to bet he has a healthy workload and a big game Monday against a defense that can’t stop the run.
The Play: Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 69.5 rushing yards (-114, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.