There’s no beating around the bush here, the Bears are a disaster.
Justin Fields had arguably the best game of his three-year career and yet, they found a way to lose.
This time it was a 24-0 run by Denver over the final quarter and a half, highlighted by head coach Matt Eberflus’ decision to go for it on fourth down rather than taking a 3-point lead with just under three minutes left on the clock.
But if there was any silver lining from that game, it’s Fields’ 335 passing yards and 80 percent completion rate.
He may not be the answer for the Bears, but amid a winless start to the season, he was finally not the issue.
Instead it was Eberflus, who is on the hot seat now more than ever.
Thursday night, when the Bears hit the road to take on the Commanders, is his Super Bowl.
If Chicago wins, his job remains alive — for now. But if he loses, his belongings may very well be waiting for him in cardboard boxes on the front stoop of the Bears’ facility upon his arrival.
As I typically do in my columns here, I’m targeting a player prop that I believe presents value.
I mentioned Fields’ solid start and I expect him to continue his success through the aerial attack.
The Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass and allowed 300+ passing yards to both Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts.
The other two games were against Josh Dobbs — who is a bottom-tier quarterback — and Josh Allen, when the Bills won 37-3 and ran the ball (33) more often than not (32 pass attempts).
Sam Howell had four interceptions in the loss.
Rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes has struggled to adjust to the NFL level.
He was picked apart by the Eagles — 197 yards allowed — and has a PFF coverage grade of 46.3 through four weeks.
Opposing receivers have a 70.8 reception percentage and 19.1 yards per reception when lined up against Forbes.
Fields has this perception about him where he’s a run-first quarterback that cannot throw a deep ball.
That’s not entirely true.
While he is explosive and can use his legs to pick up chunk yards, he’s also improved in the pocket and has shown that ability to move the ball downfield through the air.
When comparing his last two seasons — yes, this is a small sample size — there are a lot of positives from Fields.
His turnover-worthy play rate is down nearly a full percent and he’s getting rid of the ball faster by 0.4 seconds.
While that seems minimal, nearly half a second is a big difference.
I believe this passing-yards number for Fields is way too low.
Right now it sits anywhere from 189 to the mid-190s (it’s 191.5 at BetMGM), a number that should be closer to 200.
In three of four games this season, Fields has eclipsed 210 passing yards or more. The one time he didn’t?
Chicago’s 41-10 loss to the Chiefs.
I don’t believe the prop market has fully adjusted for how often Fields is dropping back now.
Last season, he attempted 21.2 passes per game. That number has jumped to 30.8 in 2023.
Not to mention the Bears once again enter as significant underdogs against the Commanders, which projects for a negative game script.
The Bears should struggle to establish the ground game with Washington’s defense top 10 in rush DVOA, rather attacking the Commanders where they’re weakest: aerial attack and explosive plays.
Back Fields to continue his success through the air on Thursday night.
The pick: Justin Fields over 189.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)