Bayern Munich demonstrated its mettle in a 2-1 victory over Boca Juniors last week, clinching its spot in the Round of 16 of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. 

The Bavarians now set their sights on Benfica, who can join Bayern in the knockout stages if they pick up at least a point against the German champions at the Bank of America Stadium on Tuesday afternoon.

Bayern needs to avoid defeat to win the group, but the betting market is anticipating plenty of squad rotation from Die Roten as they try to keep fresh ahead of the business end of the tournament.

Bayern is still the favorite to win the match, but they’re sitting at plus-money on the three-way moneyline for this match.

That wouldn’t be the case if Vincent Kompany was expected to dress his best Starting XI. 

Known as a defensive powerhouse, you’d think that the circumstances of this match would suit Benfica. 

The Portuguese side only conceded 0.82 goals per match this past season, and they’ve conceded just one goal and 0.86 expected goals (xG) in two matches at the FIFA Club World Cup.

The problem is that Bayern’s defense is in another league compared to Benfica’s. 

Only one team (Napoli) in Europe’s Big 5 Leagues conceded fewer expected goals than the Bavarians did last season. 

Throw in an offense that led Europe in goals per game, and you can see how this match can go sideways for Benfica in a hurry.

Bayern, even with a rotated squad, should be a bigger favorite Tuesday.

THE PLAY: Bayern Munich +100 (FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.