Two of the most famous soccer clubs in the world will meet in the Champions League on Wednesday afternoon.
Paris Saint-Germain, the defending champions, are +270 underdogs against Barcelona on the three-way moneyline.
Both clubs are off to ripping starts, with one loss between them in their domestic competitions, and a perfect 2-0-0 (W-D-L) combined record in the Champions League heading into Matchweek 2.
The odds-on price on Barcelona (-125) may jump out at you considering the competition Wednesday, but the reason for the steep number is that PSG is dealing with a pile of injuries.
Club captain Marquinhos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé and forward Désiré Doué are all out, while midfielders Vitinha and João Neves are both doubtful.
There’s never good timing for an injury list to look like that, but it’s especially problematic against Barcelona, who have every right to claim that they are the best team in the world through the first two months of the new campaign.
Barcelona’s attack is driving the bus with 21 goals and 15.8 expected goals in seven matches in La Liga, but the defense has pulled its weight too.
Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, has relied more on its stout defense to get off and running in Ligue 1.
That shouldn’t be a surprise, given their manager, Luis Enrique, is a master at organizing his team and turning them into a pain to break down.
With so much star power out of the lineup, I’d look for PSG to try everything they can to slow this game down and keep Barcelona from running rampant.
That should turn this into a plodding affair, one that sees both clubs struggle to make anything happen offensively.
With so much attacking talent on display, you’re bound to get a discount on the Under, which is where we’re heading Wednesday.
You can get better than 2/1 on Under 2.5 goals at FanDuel, which seems a savvy wager for this showdown.
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (+205, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.