The Seattle Kraken have been a thorn in the side for the Colorado Avalanche through the first three games of their Round 1 series, but the series scoreboard still reads 2-1 in favor of the Avs ahead of Monday night’s Game 4 in Seattle.
And although they are down in the series and face the prospect of being pushed to the brink on Monday night, the Kraken can feel pretty good about how they’ve played through the first 180 minutes of this series.
Seattle has had a lead in all three games and the 5-on-5 numbers are pretty tight.
Can Seattle pull the upset on Monday night and turn this series into a best-of-3?
(10 p.m. ET. TBS)
Colorado vs. Seattle was always going to be a battle of starpower against depth.
While the Avs are built around players like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Mikko Rantanen, the Kraken rely on their ability to roll four lines and get production from up and down their lineup to get results.
So far in this series, this philosophical battle has held true.
The Avs stars have driven the bus to a 2-1 lead with MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Toews combining for six of the team’s 10 goals in the series, while Seattle has eight different players with at least a goal and only one (Jaden Schwartz) with two.
And while Colorado would love a little more production from its depth players and Seattle could use a big game from someone like Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn or Jared McCann, both clubs can feel pretty good about where they sit as this series heads to Game 4.
For the Avs, they have the 2-1 series lead and home-ice advantage, but the Kraken have held their own and played the Avs to almost even splits at 5-on-5.
Both teams have seven goals at even strength, and the underlying metrics are tight.
Colorado has the edge in expected goals (7.9 to 6.1) and high-danger scoring chances (34 to 33), but nothing suggests one team is tilting the ice in this series.
That is good news for the Kraken, but it also means the difference in the series will likely come down to special teams and goaltending.
And while neither goaltender has set the world on fire, the Avs should have the edge in both of those departments as the series goes on.
Two of the first three games in this series have gone under the total, but one of those contests saw a blood-and-thunder performance from Seattle goaltender Philipp Grubauer.
The German netminder has been below-average through his first two seasons with the Kraken, so expecting him to play at that level seems a bit far-fetched, which should open a path to a back-and-forth contest on Monday night.
The Bet: Over 6 (FanDuel)