It’s a massive season for Hugh Freeze and Auburn.

It may seem like a college football cliche to say that teams should take a leap in Year 3 of a coach’s tenure, but it’s just a way to put a positive spin on putting someone on the hot seat.

There are built-in excuses in Years 1 and 2, but those go away in Year 3.

So does the patience of your boosters and fans, especially at massive programs like Auburn.

All of this is to say that few teams will be under more pressure than the Tigers to get a win in Week 1.

They’re 2.5-point favorites on the road at Baylor, who also have a coach facing some pressure.

Dave Aranda enters his sixth season in charge of Baylor, and it’s been a mixed bag for the 48-year-old so far in Waco.

Baylor has won 2, 12, 6, 3, and 8 games in Aranda’s first five seasons, respectively, though his latest campaign was quite impressive.

The Bears were 2-4 out of the gate in 2024, and Aranda was as good as gone, but the Bears surged down the stretch and finished the regular season on a six-game heater before losing to LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Quarterback Sawyer Robertson was the driving force behind Baylor’s success, but Aranda also deserves credit because the defense improved in a big way when he took over play-calling duties.

If the defensive turnaround carries into 2025, you can see why Baylor is getting plenty of hype as a potential gatecrasher in the wide-open Big 12 this year.

They’ve already got one of the best quarterbacks in the country — and he’s got plenty of returning talent around him — so a stout defense would turn this team into a contender.

While Baylor’s offense proved itself last year, Auburn is banking on promise.

The Tigers brought in blue-chip recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma to play quarterback, and while his ceiling could be quite high, he didn’t prove it with the Sooners in 2025.

Part of Arnold’s struggles in Norman were down to rotten luck and injuries, but he’ll be under the microscope out of the gates and will be going up against a defense that could be sneaky good under Aranda’s guidance.

Arnold could click with a plethora of weapons around him, but there’s also every chance he sputters in Week 1, leading to a quiet showing on the road.

If Arnold and Auburn do click Friday, we’ll tip our caps. But, for now, we’ll back the established quarterback in a game that’s being priced like a coin flip.

The Play: Baylor (+115, bet365)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.