Thursday’s showdown between Ben Shelton and Gabriel Diallo at the ATP Washington Open may not break into the mainstream, but tennis fanatics and bettors will consider it a can’t-miss tilt.
Shelton and Diallo are two rising powers in the sport, and they both should be well-suited for the North American hard-court swing, which favors players who can overpower their opponents with their serve and groundstrokes.
Shelton, the World No. 8, is a -200 favorite over Diallo on Thursday.
Diallo defeated Shelton in their only professional meeting, but that came back in 2022 on the Challenger circuit, so there’s nothing you can really learn from that result.
Not only are the two big-serving stars much better players now, but they’re also in terrific form.
Shelton is just a couple of weeks removed from a trip to the Wimbledon quarterfinals, where he lost to Jannik Sinner. Shelton had dropped just one set prior to his loss to the eventual champion.
Diallo was stopped in the second round of Wimbledon by No. 4 Taylor Fritz, but he took him to five sets, ending a terrific spell on the grass in 2025. The Montreal native won a title at the Libema Open as part of a 9-3 run on the lawn.
This is the first tournament for each player since Wimbledon, but both Shelton and Diallo looked terrific in straight-set wins in the Round of 32.
Both of these players are unabashed about how they want matches to unfold. Shelton and Diallo boast two of the best serves on tour, and they’ll want to win quick, cheap points when they’re starting with the ball.
Given the stylistic matchup, it’s no surprise that the Over/Under is set at 24.5 games, with juice on the over.
In all likelihood, this match will be decided by which player holds their nerve in tiebreaks, and that really narrows the margin for error for both players.
In this kind of matchup, I’d lean towards the underdog, especially a punchy one like Diallo.
The Play: Gabriel Diallo +160 (bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.