There have been some upsets already at ATP Washington, but that shouldn’t be a surprise.

Given its position in the tennis calendar, just a week after the conclusion of Wimbledon, there are often some overcooked favorites in the Capital, which leads to a couple of upstarts making deep runs.

Last year’s final featured Sebastian Korda beating Flavio Cobolli, while Dan Evans surprised everyone with a title in 2023, beating Tallon Griekspoor in the showpiece.

Nick Kyrgios took home the trophy in 2022, which wasn’t a shocker, but the fact that it was Yoshi Nishioka opposite him in the final certainly was a shock.

There are some real heavyweights in this field, like Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, and Alex de Minaur, but don’t be shocked if we see another dark horse lift the trophy Sunday.

One such candidate is rising American Learner Tien.

After winning three Challenger titles in 2024, Tien really announced his presence by making it to the finals of the ATP Next Generation Tournament at the end of last year.

Tien carried that momentum into 2025, getting all the way to the Round of 16 at the Australian Open and then the Round of 16 in Acapulco.

The change from hard courts to clay slowed Tien’s roll, but don’t be surprised if the 19-year-old from Irvine, Calif., finds his form during the next few weeks.

Tien has plenty of work to do to become a well-rounded ATP player, but he’s shown serious chops on the hard court and could give Andrey Rublev a lot to think about Wednesday.

Rublev’s reputation as one of the most consistent players on tour has taken a hit this season.

For years, you could set your watch to the Russian. He would beat the players he was supposed to, and then struggled when he had to step up in competition.

This year has seen Rublev fall to lesser players, which has caused him to drop out of the top 10 in May and June.

Rublev’s inconsistency is one concern, but he could also be quite fatigued after going to the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, then playing in Los Cabos last week.

A trip to D.C. is probably the last thing the 27-year-old needs right now.

Tien should be the fresher of the two competitors, and he has the hard-court game to stop Rublev on Wednesday.

The Play: Learner Tien (+180, BetMGM)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.