The path is there for Alexander Zverev to win his first Masters 1000 title of 2025.
Zverev, the No. 1 seed in the tournament with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner sitting out, is a -275 favorite against Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 16 at the Canadian Masters, and he’s staring down a potential contest with Holger Rune in the quarterfinals.
You need to be careful not to project too far ahead, but Zverev would fancy his chances against any of the potential opponents out of the second quarterfinal in the semifinals.
Tennis Abstract gives Zverev just about a 1-in-4 chance of winning the title at ATP Toronto, but the German does have a habit of muddying up these opportunities lately.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | -350 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | +275 |
It feels like the tennis world has been expecting a true breakout year from Cerundolo for a while.
The Argentinian has cemented his spot in the top 30, and he does have three career titles, but more has been expected of the 26-year-old, at least in terms of trophies.
What’s even more confusing is that Cerundolo’s has never had too much of an issue punching up.
He is 6-4 against top-10 opponents in 2025, and 15-16 in his career, making him one of the best players outside the top 10 at going toe-to-toe with the sport’s elite players.
Cerundolo will draw even more confidence from the fact that he is 3-0 against Zverev in his career, and he’s catching the German at a good time.
Zverev lost in the opening round at Wimbledon and has been inconsistent since winning a title in Munich back in April.
The World No. 3 didn’t make things easy on himself in Round 1 of this tournament against Matteo Arnaldi either.
Cerundolo can be an infuriating opponent with his relentlessness and ability to defend, and that should give Zverev plenty of chances to spiral.
The Play: Francisco Cerundolo (+275, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.