With two new polls of key early states showing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis losing ground to former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the main DeSantis-supporting super PAC is focusing on Republican voters who want to move on from the one-time commander-in-chief.
Never Back Down has spent more than $30 million to date on advertising, focusing on Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada — the first four states on the Republican primary calendar.
Despite their massive spending and fundraising haul, DeSantis has not made any headway in the race for the GOP nomination.
On Monday, the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Haley, 51, and DeSantis, 45, tied for second place, 27 percentage points behind Trump, 77.
On Tuesday, a CNN/SSRS poll of South Carolina had DeSantis a distant third at 11% among likely Republican primary voters, with Trump way ahead at 53% and Haley at 22%.
“The way we look at this race is that there are three buckets,” a source familiar with Never Back Down’s advertising strategy tells The Post. “There’s the Trump base. Those are voters that are definitely with him and are never leaving him. There’s the middle bucket, which are voters who voted for President Trump probably both times [in 2016 and 2020, some of them Day One supporters, but they feel like it’s time to move on.
“And then you have the never-Trump bucket, and those are people who just want to beat Trump,” added the person, who said that Haley has “won the competition in the never-Trump bucket.”
However, the so-called middle bucket “has grown” in the last few months, “particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire” and is “consolidating behind DeSantis,” the source familiar said.
Even polls that make grim reading for DeSantis supporters show reasons for optimism.
The Iowa poll, for example, showed that just 63% of Trump supporters said their mind was made up to support the 45th president — a total that amounts to approximately 27% of all likely Hawkeye State caucus-goers.
In the same poll, 54% of all likely GOP caucus-goers said they could be persuaded to back someone other than their first choice.
When asked for their second choice, a plurality of 27% said DeSantis, 17% said Haley, 12% said Trump, 10% said Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and 9% said Vivek Ramaswamy.
Meanwhile, a July New York Times/Siena College poll showed a significant number of Republicans, 16%, would either vote for President Biden, not vote at all, vote for a third party candidate, or would be unsure what to do if Trump was the nominee.
The tired-of-Trump vote will become more critical once the field thins further and the former president is no longer competing against a multi-candidate field, veteran election watchers told The Post.
But the key will be to get them to the voting booths.
“The tired-of-Trump of vote is a group that is going to have to be energized to show up,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, describing the cohort as largely made up of older voters who need a reason to come out.
“DeSantis, if that’s his strategy, is going to have to clearly define why they should be voting for him and not somebody else.”
Even then, Republican strategist John Thomas argued, the “math isn’t there” for DeSantis to overcome Trump’s lead, especially since Haley is unlikely to drop out anytime soon.
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Trump’s lead has been “incredibly steady” throughout the primary campaign, Thomas said, adding that Never Back Down is “deeply unlikely” to change the trajectory.
“They’re not magicians,” pronounced Thomas, who added that “the only strategy that I think is possible right now, is if Trump implodes on his own weight.”
Never Back Down’s recent ads have also shifted the focus of their attacks to Haley from Trump, a move that the source familiar with the super PAC’s strategy described as “the consolidation of the field.”
The super PAC has released ads slamming Haley’s record on China and her purported stance on allowing refugees from Gaza into the US.
“If Vivek was still alive and if Tim Scott was still alive, I’m sure we’d be pointing out their record too,” the source familiar said. “In order for us to consolidate the field, we have to make sure that voters are aware of the opponent to get this to a head-on Trump vs. DeSantis race.”
Nationally, Trump leads the field with 59% of the vote, compared to DeSantis’ 12.6% and Haley’s 8.3%, according to RealClearPolitics’ average.
No other candidate has reached 5%.
Previous ads have highlighted DeSantis’ record as Florida governor, his military background, his family, and his border policies, with several spots contrasting him and Trump.
Currently, Never Back Down is only up with TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, with the source saying its footprint is likely to expand after Thanksgiving.
“We’re going to watch what the campaign does” to “complement what they’re doing” in terms of ads, the person said.
The super PAC has supplemented DeSantis’s campaign events by inviting him as a special guest as reports indicate that the governor only has $5 million cash on hand left for the primary.