I love the Clemson Tigers.

There was one upset in the Round of 32 and it was Clemson, which took down Baylor as a 4.5-point dog. 

But that game said more about the Bears than the Tigers.

Baylor’s defense has been a mess all year and allowed Clemson to waltz to the rim on every possession. 

Arizona will be an entirely different beast. 

(7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)

The Tigers have a few schematic advantages in this battle. 

They boast an elite transition denial defense that can force the up-tempo Wildcats into the half court, and they’re a disciplined rebounding unit that can keep the Wildcats off the offensive boards. 

Additionally, head coach Brad Brownell will switch to a 2-3 zone defense if a change in pace is needed, and Arizona’s zone offense is far from elite. 

On the other end of the court, Oumar Ballo is a tad slow-footed laterally, so he can be exploited as a post-defender. Meanwhile, Arizona’s guards can struggle to defend the 3-point line, with the Wildcats ranking 190th nationally in Open 3 Rate allowed. 

That’s a problem against Clemson, which utilizes an inside-to-out flowing offense by feeding PJ Hall in the post, drawing the defense toward the interior, and kicking the ball out to shooters. 

All that said, I’m worried that the Tigers lack the necessary two-way size and athleticism to compete with the Wildcats. 

Arizona has a bevy of athletic, versatile pick-and-roll creators and dominant, overwhelming rim finishers. Chase Hunter, Joe Girard, Ian Schieffelin and PJ Hall aren’t at the same athletic level as Kylan Boswell, Caleb Love, Pelle Larsson and Ballo. 

Specifically, Clemson’s guards have struggled mightily to defend perimeter ball-screen actions, even when dropping or switching actions. The Tigers have allowed the 41st-most points to pick-and-roll ball-handlers this season among all college basketball defenses this season. 

While Clemson’s ball-screen coverage defense swarmed two great pick-and-roll offenses in New Mexico and Baylor, most of that was luck. The Lobos and Bears shot 9-for-47 (19%) combined from 3 against the Tigers. 

If Clemson allows a few (overdue) triples early, the compact defense should open up, which Arizona should unpack. 

One ball-screen initiator that could ruthlessly exploit Clemson’s backcourt defense is Larsson, who will enjoy a considerable size advantage at 6-foot-6 and has generated 1.01 PPP as a ball-screen initiator this year (90th percentile).

The Tigers still allowed Baylor to shoot 15-for-30 (50%) from inside the arc, and the Bears made a heroic late-game comeback bid. The Wildcats are much more dependable than Baylor in terms of pure inside-out offense.  

Plus, we can’t forget that Arizona ranks in the top 20 nationally in near-proximity shooting allowed, so the interior defense isn’t entirely exploitable. Stopping Hall on the interior would mess with Clemson’s elite spacing. 

Ultimately, I don’t think Clemson has the horses to pull off another upset bid. But considering the Xs and Os, I don’t feel comfortable laying two possessions with Arizona.

Factoring in the huge travel advantage that Arizona has – Clemson is traveling cross-country to Los Angeles, while the Wildcats are a 100-minute flight away – I feel confident the Wildcats advance to the Elite Eight.

My best handicapping advice on this game is to use Arizona as a moneyline parlay piece, pairing it with another team you like to win outright. 

I suggest putting the Wildcats on a ticket with Tennessee, North Carolina or Houston. 

Arizona ML (-305, Caesars) as a Parlay Piece